Title page

Contents

Acknowledgments 8

Acronyms 9

Executive summary 12

Climate change and extreme events are increasing, as are their impacts 13

Development, adaptation, and resilience are inseparable 14

Countries have not mainstreamed adaptation and resilience in their economic and development policies 17

Private and public actors are stepping up A&R action and investments 20

Introduction: The growing and unequal risks from climate change 26

Climate change and its impacts 27

Impacts are larger on poor and vulnerable countries, communities, and people 29

Low-income population are at high risk from climate-related hazards 31

This report 34

CHAPTER 1. Adaptation and resilience as a development imperative 36

1.1. Development, adaptation, and resilience are inseparable 37

1.1.1. Faster development: closing development gaps is fundamental to boost resilience 37

1.1.2. Better development: not all development builds resilience 42

1.1.3. Targeted adaptation interventions and climate risk management 46

1.1.4. Resilience, or just good development? 47

1.2. Financial needs for development and adaptation are strongly interlinked 48

1.3. The private sector has a crucial role to play, but faces many barriers 50

1.4. Advancing A&R goals requires a whole-of-society response 53

CHAPTER 2. More is needed: gaps and priorities identified by country A&R readiness assessments 56

2.1. Key gaps and priorities for action 57

2.2. Foundations: rapid, robust, and inclusive development to build resilience 60

2.3. Priority Area 1. Facilitate the adaptation of people and firms 61

2.4. Priority Area 2. Adapt land use plans and protect critical public assets and services 64

2.5. Priority Area 3. Help people and firms manage residual risks and natural hazards 67

2.6. Priority Area 4. Manage financial and macrofiscal issues 71

2.7. Applications: legal and institutional framework, implementation, and monitoring progress 74

2.7.1. Political and legal commitments 74

2.7.2. Governance and institutional framework 76

2.7.3. Monitoring and evaluation capacity 78

CHAPTER 3. Private and public actors are stepping up A&R action 80

3.1. Examples of private sector advances in A&R action and investments 81

3.1.1. Case studies from the agriculture sector 82

3.1.2. Case studies from the energy and infrastructure sectors 86

3.1.3. Case studies from the finance sector 93

3.2. Examples of public sector advances in A&R action and investments 99

3.2.1. Building end-to-end hydromet services in Bangladesh 100

3.2.2. Programmatic, regional solutions for resilient transport in Pacific Island countries (PICs) 104

3.2.3. Infrastructure investment to build drought resilience in Brazil 108

3.2.4. Creating an enabling environment to mobilize private investment: diversifying energy supply in Albania 111

3.2.5. Adaptive social protection to support poor and vulnerable people in Bangladesh, Nigeria, Nepal, and Niger 113

3.2.6. Saving lives through a heat-health action plan in India 120

3.2.7. Comprehensive financial preparedness in the Philippines 123

3.2.8. Climate and disaster-resilient development in Vanuatu 127

3.2.9. Supporting decentralization and strengthening local government for effective local climate action in Guinea 131

Conclusion: An opportunity to replicate successes and scale up action 134

Appendix: Adaptation and resilience (A&R) readiness assessment methodology 135

References 138

TABLE ES.1. A 10 PERCENT INCREASE IN GDP PER CAPITA IS ASSOCIATED WITH IMPROVEMENTS IN VARIOUS RISK OR RESILIENCE METRICS 14

TABLE ES.2. OVERVIEW OF CASE STUDIES ON PUBLIC SECTOR-LED A&R PROGRAMS 22

TABLE 1. A 10 PERCENT INCREASE IN GDP PER CAPITA IS ASSOCIATED WITH IMPROVEMENTS IN VARIOUS RISK OR RESILIENCE METRICS 42

TABLE 2. A&R READINESS ASSESSMENT: THE 44 COUNTRIES INCLUDED IN THE REPORT 58

TABLE 3. CASUALTIES FROM NATURAL HAZARDS IN INDONESIA, PER EVENT AND PER 100,000 PEOPLE 70

TABLE 4. PBC4 TARGETS AND FINANCING 133

FIGURE ES.1. SHARE OF POPULATION THAT IS EXPOSED AND HIGHLY VULNERABLE BY REGION, 2021 13

FIGURE ES.2. SHARE OF POPULATION AT HIGH RISK FROM CLIMATE-RELATED HAZARDS, 2010-21 15

FIGURE ES.3. THE ADAPTATION PRINCIPLES FRAMEWORK 18

FIGURE ES.4. SUMMARY OF COUNTRY PERFORMANCE IN THE SIX A&R PILLARS 18

FIGURE 1. CHANGES IN GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURE AND SEA LEVEL 27

FIGURE 2. PROJECTED TOTAL LABOR PRODUCTIVITY IMPACT DUE TO HEAT STRESS IN CCDR COUNTRIES BY 2050, UNDER A HOT/DRY FUTURE 30

FIGURE 3. INCOME LOSSES FOR THE POOREST 40 PERCENT IN EACH COUNTRY AND SCENARIO 31

FIGURE 4. FRAMEWORK FOR IDENTIFYING PEOPLE AT HIGH RISK FROM CLIMATE-RELATED HAZARDS 32

FIGURE 5. SHARE OF POPULATION THAT IS EXPOSED AND HIGHLY VULNERABLE BY REGION, 2021 32

FIGURE 6. SHARE OF POPULATION AT HIGH RISK FROM CLIMATE-RELATED HAZARDS, 2010-21 33

FIGURE 7. FRAMEWORK FOR MAINSTREAMING ADAPTATION WITHIN DEVELOPMENT 37

FIGURE 8. SHARE OF PEOPLE WITH HIGH VULNERABILITY TO, OR AT HIGH RISK FROM CLIMATE-RELATED HAZARDS 39

FIGURE 9. RISK TO ASSETS AND WELL-BEING, AND SOCIOECONOMIC RESILIENCE ACROSS THE WORLD 40

FIGURE 10. ADDITIONAL PEOPLE LIVING IN EXTREME POVERTY DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE BY 2030, UNDER TWO CLIMATE SCENARIOS 41

FIGURE 11. SHARE OF POPULATION EXPOSED TO ANY CLIMATE HAZARD, BY COUNTRY INCOME GROUP 43

FIGURE 12. EVOLUTION OF URBAN SETTLEMENT IN AREAS EXPOSED TO DIFFERENT RISK LEVELS, BY COUNTRY INCOME GROUP 44

FIGURE 13. INCREMENTAL COST OF INCREASING THE RESILIENCE OF FUTURE INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS 44

FIGURE 14. SOCIOECONOMIC RESILIENCE AND WELL-BEING RISKS FROM NATURAL HAZARDS, BY COUNTRY INCOME GROUP 45

FIGURE 15. INVESTMENT NEEDS FOR RESILIENT LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT IN CCDR COUNTRIES 49

FIGURE 16. THE ADAPTATION PRINCIPLES FRAMEWORK 57

FIGURE 17. A&R READINESS ASSESSMENT RESULTS ACROSS 44 COUNTRIES 59

FIGURE 18. GDP PER CAPITA AND OVERALL A&R SCORE 61

FIGURE 19. AVERAGE SCORE FOR EACH ACTION AREA WITHIN PRIORITY AREA 1: FACILITATE THE ADAPTATION OF PEOPLE AND FIRMS 62

FIGURE 20. AVERAGE SCORE FOR EACH ACTION AREA WITHIN PRIORITY 2: ADAPT LAND USE PLANS AND PROTECT CRITICAL PUBLIC ASSETS AND SERVICES 64

FIGURE 21. AVERAGE SCORE FOR EACH ACTION AREA WITHIN PRIORITY 3: HELP FIRMS AND PEOPLE MANAGE RESIDUAL RISKS AND NATURAL HAZARDS 68

FIGURE 22. COUNTRIES REPORTING THE EXISTENCE OF A MULTI-HAZARD EARLY WARNING SYSTEM 71

FIGURE 23. AVERAGE SCORE FOR EACH ACTION AREA WITHIN PRIORITY AREA 4: MANAGE FINANCIAL AND MACROFISCAL ISSUES 72

FIGURE 24. AVERAGE SCORE FOR EACH ACTION AREA WITHIN APPLICATION: INSTITUTIONS, IMPLEMENTATION, AND MONITORING PROGRESS 74

FIGURE 25. GENERIC VALUE CHAIN OF HYDROMET SERVICES 101

FIGURE 26/FIGURE 27. EARLY ACTION AS PART OF THE RESILIENCE AND RESPONSE CONTINUUM 114

FIGURE 27/FIGURE 28. PHILIPPINES DRFI STRATEGY 124

FIGURE 28/FIGURE 29. PHILIPPINES RISK-LAYERING STRATEGY 125

Boxes

BOX ES.1. Capturing the full picture of adaptation financing 16

BOX 1. Defining Adaptation and Resilience (A&R) 26

BOX 2. A&R readiness assessment to inform Côte d'Ivoire's national adaptation plan (NAP) development 58

BOX 3. Tools and frameworks to make infrastructure more resilient 66

BOX 4. Nature-based solutions for climate resilience 67

BOX 5. Early warning system benefit analysis in Indonesia 70

BOX 6. The European Central Bank: advancements in climate stress tests 72

BOX 7. Locally led adaptation action 77

BOX 8. Cross-sectoral analysis of adaptation impacts and effectiveness 81

TABLE A.1. SUMMARY OF COUNTRY A&R READINESS SCORES 136