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Title page

Contents

Abstract 3

1. Introduction 4

2. PIAAC Data 10

2.1. International Data 10

2.2. Country-Specific Extensions 13

3. Automation Risk 14

3.1. Measuring Automation Risk at the Individual Level 14

3.2. Descriptive Patterns in Automation Risk 16

4. Empirical Strategy 20

4.1. Basic Empirical Model 20

4.2. Selection into Job Training 21

4.3. Entropy Balancing 23

5. Results 24

5.1. Training and Automation 24

5.2. Robustness 26

5.3. Mechanisms 34

5.4. Training and Wages 37

6. Heterogeneity in Training Effectiveness 38

6.1. Heterogeneity by Country 39

6.2. Heterogeneity by Gender and Age 40

6.3. Heterogeneity by Education Level 41

6.4. Heterogeneity by Type of Training 41

7. Conclusions 42

References 44

Appendix A. Additional Figures 52

Appendix B. Additional Tables 60

Tables

Table 1. Training and Automation Risk 25

Table 2. U.S. Evidence Linking Two PIAAC Waves 29

Table 3. Training and Automation Risk: Value-Added Approach for Germany 31

Table 4. Training and Automation Risk: Panel Analysis for Germany 33

Table 5. Training and Digital Skills 37

Table 6. Training and Wages 39

Figures

Figure 1. Automation Risk Across and Within Occupations 17

Figure 2. Change in Automation Risk over Time 19

Figure 3. Training and Task Use 35

Appendix Tables

Table B.1. Job Training Characteristics By Worker Demographics 60

Table B.2. Automation Risk: Description of Included Tasks 60

Table B.3. Factor Loadings Automation Risk: International Analysis 61

Table B.4. Job Tasks in German PIAAC Data 62

Table B.5. Automation Risk in German PIAAC Data 63

Table B.6. Change in Automation Risk over Time in Germany 64

Table B.7. Training and Automation Risk: Different Levels of Clustering Standard Errors 64

Table B.8. Training and Residualized Skills 65

Table B.9. Balancing 66

Table B.10. Training and Automation Risk: Occupation Fixed Effects at Four-Digit Level 67

Table B.11. Training and Automation Risk: Unrestricted Sample 68

Table B.12. Training and Automation Risk: Region × Industry × Firm Size Fixed Effects 69

Table B.13. Training and Automation Risk: Coefficient Bounds 70

Table B.14. Change in Training Effectiveness over Time in the United States and Germany 70

Table B.15. Training and Digital Skills, Imputed Digital Skills for Missing Data 71

Table B.16. Training and Basic Digital Skills 72

Appendix Figures

Figure A.1. Densities of Automation Risk by Occupation 52

Figure A.2. Automation Risk and Wages 53

Figure A.3. Training and Automation Risk by Country 54

Figure A.4. Training and Wages by Country 55

Figure A.5. Heterogeneity by Age and Gender 56

Figure A.6. Heterogeneity by Education Level 57

Figure A.7. Heterogeneity by Duration of Training 58

Figure A.8. Heterogeneity by Financing of Training 59

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