본문 바로가기 주메뉴 바로가기
22대 대한민국 국회 국회정보길라잡이 국회의원검색
회원가입 로그인
HOME

정보검색

소장정보 검색

국회도서관 홈으로 정보검색 소장정보 검색
결과 내 검색 동의어 포함
결과 내 검색 동의어 포함

-

목차보기

Title page 1

Contents 1

Abstract 2

Introduction and motivation 4

1. Literature review 7

2. Afghanistan context 9

3. Data and methods 11

4. Results 13

4.1. Compared with total luminosity, civilian nighttime lights are better at tracking the evolution of economic activity 13

4.2. Civilian lights show economic activity is growing post 2022 16

4.3. Nighttime lights indicate that the spatial distribution of economic activity has changed since 2020 21

5. Conclusions 23

References 25

Annex A: Additional figures and tables 27

Annex B: Further data validation 30

Annex C: Synthetic controls methodology 34

Tables 15

Table 1. Correlation of GDP and nighttime lights (multiple periods) 15

Figures 6

Figure 1. Comparing lights from the Kandahar city with the Kandahar Airfield 6

Figure 2. Main macroeconomic indicators 10

Figure 3. Evolution of total, civilian, and military luminosity 14

Figure 4. Total and civilian luminosity (Share of national) 16

Figure 5. Evolution of nighttime and real GDP 18

Figure 6. Counterfactual evolution of civilian nighttime lights: Synthetic Control approach 20

Figure 7. Change in civilian nighttime lights relative to 2020 22

Figure 8. Regional civilian lights (% of National) 23

Annex Tables 31

Table B1. Could-free coverage pixel-level measurements (Civilian night time lights) Pixel radiance quintiles in 2020 31

Table B2. Pixel-level distrinution of luminosity Civilian night time lights 33

Table C1. Percent of national civilian luminosity for each province in the synthetic control 36

Table C2. Provinces in synthetic control with their corresponding weights 38

Annex Figures 27

Figure A1. Conflict intensity (Total fatalities) 27

Figure A2. Comparison of total luminosity VIIRS-like and VIIRS data 27

Figure A3. Examples OSM polygons with military installations 28

Figure A4. Examples of military installations identified through our two step process 28

Figure A5. Evolution of luminosty and GDP 29

Figure B1. Could-free coverage pixel-level measurements at the regional level Civilian night time lights 31

Figure B2. Pixel-level distrinution of luminosity: Civilian night time lights 32

Figure C1. Placebo test: Predicting civilian luminosity between 2018 and 2020 35

초록보기

This study uses nighttime lights to examine the evolution of economic activity in Afghanistan after the August 2021 regime change. A year later, nighttime luminosity had dropped by 20 percent, with two-thirds of this decline tied to the pre-planned international military withdrawal. To focus on local economic activity, the study filters out light emissions from foreign military installations, which accounted for up to 30 percent of lights over the past decade. Using civilian nighttime lights to understand the new economic reality in the country indicates a significant economic recovery concentrated in previously conflict-affected regions. By 2023/24, civilian luminosity had surpassed pre-2020/21 levels by 10.5 percent while, in contrast, official gross domestic product indicates an economy that is one-quarter smaller. The findings highlight changes in economic dynamics, including increased informality, shifts in the geographic distribution of activity, and improved security post-Taliban takeover.

추천서가 (다양한 추천 자료를 만나보세요)

권호기사보기

권호기사 목록 테이블로 기사명, 저자명, 페이지, 원문, 기사목차 순으로 되어있습니다.
기사명 저자명 페이지 원문 기사목차