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Title page 1

Contents 1

Abstract 2

1. Introduction 3

2. How could AI affect banks' lending? 10

3. Data Sources 13

3.1. Census Bureau's Technology Survey 13

3.2. The Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) dataset 14

3.3. The Small Business Administration (SBA) dataset 15

3.4. Other datasets 16

4. Empirical Results 16

4.1. The AI adoption rate 16

4.2. What bank characteristics are associated with AI use? 17

4.3. The effect of AI on the quantity of small-business loans 18

4.4. Addressing the endogeneity concern 21

4.5. Do all advanced technologies increase distant lending? 23

4.6. Are AI's effects stronger for underserved areas? 24

4.7. AI's effect on the total credit supply to distant counties 25

4.8. AI's effect on loan performance 26

4.9. AI's effect on interest spread 28

5. Conclusion 30

References 32

Appendix A. Variable Definitions 36

Appendix B. Survey Questions on the Use of AI and Other Technologies 37

Online Appendix A1. The Effect of AI Use on Credit Supply to Distant Counties 48

Tables 39

Table 1. Descriptive Statistics 39

Table 2. Determinants of Banks' Adoption of AI 40

Table 3. The Effect of AI Adoption on Credit Supply 41

Table 4. The Effect of AI Adoption on Credit Supply by Distance 42

Table 5. Instrumental Variable 43

Table 6. Falsification Tests 44

Table 7. The Mechanism 45

Table 8. The Effect of AI Adoption on Loan Performance 46

Table 9. The Effect of AI Adoption on Loan Pricing 47

초록보기

Utilizing confidential microdata from the Census Bureau’s new technology survey (technology module of the Annual Business Survey), we shed light on U.S. banks’ use of artificial intelligence (AI) and its effect on their small business lending. We find that the percentage of banks using AI increases from 14% in 2017 to 43% in 2019. Linking banks’ AI use to their small business lending, we find that banks with greater AI usage lend significantly more to distant borrowers, about whom they have less soft information. Using an instrumental variable based on banks’ proximity to AI vendors, we show that AI’s effect is likely causal. In contrast, we do not find similar effects for cloud systems, other types of software, or hardware surveyed by Census, highlighting AI’s uniqueness. Moreover, AI’s effect on distant lending is more pronounced in poorer areas and areas with less bank presence. Last, we find that banks with greater AI usage experience lower default rates among distant borrowers and charge these borrowers lower interest rates, suggesting that AI helps banks identify creditworthy borrowers at loan origination. Overall, our evidence suggests that AI helps banks reduce information asymmetry with borrowers, thereby enabling them to extend credit over greater distances.

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