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Title page 1

Contents 1

Abstract 2

Non-technical Summary 3

1. Introduction 5

2. Background 6

3. Model 10

3.1. Firms 11

3.2. Households 17

3.3. Equilibrium 18

4. Calibration and data sources 18

5. Results 19

5.1. Short term effects 20

5.2. Medium term effects. The role of renewable energies 24

6. Conclusions 26

References 28

Appendix A. Figures and Tables 33

Acknowledgements 35

Tables 23

Table 1. Short term impact 23

Table 2. Change in value added of the 10 most and 10 least affected sectors by a €100 carbon price (in percentage change) 24

Table 3. Medium term impact 26

Figures 11

Figure 1. Firms production function 11

Appendix Tables 33

Table A.1. Parameters 33

Table A.2. Data sources 33

Table A.3. Sector classification 34

초록보기

An increase of e100 per tonne in the EU carbon price reduces the carbon footprint but lowers GDP due to higher energy costs and carbon leakage. Using a dynamic multi-sector, multi-country model augmented with an energy block that includes endogenous renewable energy investment, we analyze the macroeconomic and emissions effects of a carbon price. Investment in renewable energy mitigates electricity price increases in the medium term, leading to a smaller GDP loss (up to -0.4%) and a larger emissions reduction (24%) in the EU. Neglecting renewable energy investment overestimates the negative economic impact. We also find that a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) reduces carbon leakage but slightly hurts GDP and inflation as the competitive gain is offset by the higher costs of imported intermediate inputs.

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