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22대 대한민국 국회 국회정보길라잡이 국회의원검색
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Title page 1

Contents 1

Summary 1

"It's complicated" 2

Shifting power in the Black Sea 4

Between Russia and the West 6

Defending the Black Sea (and Ukraine) since 2022 8

The West in search of a Black Sea strategy 10

How Turkey, NATO and the EU can work together 15

Strategic realignment with Turkey 18

Acknowledgments 19

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Turkey and Russia are the dominant powers in the Black Sea. They maintain a delicate balance of competition and cooperation as each seeks to contain the other but also to avoid

triggering a war.

Turkey’s cautious approach towards Russia has led it to prioritise regional stability over alignment with EU and NATO policies, straining relations with the West.

As Europe faces shifting US policies and the challenge of containing a post-war Russia, renewed cooperation with Turkey is essential. The Black Sea could be the first step.

NATO should prioritise mini-partnerships with Ankara in the Black Sea, using Turkey’s preference for regional cooperation with Romania and Bulgaria over high-profile engagements with non-coastal allies.

The EU should foster collaboration in areas of mutual interest—such as Black Sea security, Caucasus stability and defence-industrial cooperation—to improve its relations with Turkey.

A pragmatic reset in Turkey-EU relations could enhance each side’s ability to contain Russia, a shared goal, and include Turkey in the post-Ukraine war European security architecture.

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