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Title page 1

Contents 4

Executive Summary 7

Recent Economic Developments 7

Outlook and Risks 8

Special Topic: Business Support Programs in the Kyrgyz Republic: A Snapshot for the 2020-2022 Period 9

I. RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS 10

Global and Regional Economic Developments and Outlook 10

Economic Growth 11

Price Inflation 13

The Balance of Payments 14

Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy 16

The Banking System 17

Fiscal Performance 18

Poverty Developments 19

II. OUTLOOK AND RISKS 21

III. SPECIAL TOPIC: BUSINESS SUPPORT PROGRAMS IN THE KYRGYZ REPUBLIC: A SNAPSHOT FOR THE 2020-2022 PERIOD 25

Business Support Policies: Objectives and Risks 25

Methodological Approach 26

Results 27

Conclusions 31

Annex: Further Methodological Details 33

Tables 5

Table 1. Banking sector indicators 18

Table 2. Fiscal Outturns, 2021-23 (percent of GDP) 19

Figures 4

Figure 1. Growth by country 11

Figure 2. Commodity prices 11

Figure 3. Real GDP growth 12

Figure 4. Contribution to growth by expenditure (percentage points) 12

Figure 5. Contribution to growth by sector (percentage points) 12

Figure 6. Services growth 12

Figure 7. Headline inflation and food, fuel, non-food and services price inflation 14

Figure 8. CPI, PPI inflation and GDP deflator 14

Figure 9. Trade and current account balances (percent of GDP) 15

Figure 10. Exports, imports, income and transfers 15

Figure 11. Current account financing (percent of GDP) 15

Figure 12. Exports of gold 15

Figure 13. Remittance inflows 15

Figure 14. Nominal and real policy interest rates 16

Figure 15. Inflation, loan, and deposit interest rates 16

Figure 16. Exchange rate and NBKR interventions 17

Figure 17. Gross international reserves (end of periods) 17

Figure 18. Nominal and real effective exchange rates (2010=100) 17

Figure 19. National Poverty Rates 20

Figure 20. National Poverty Rates by Region, 2022 20

Figure 21. PV of Public External Debt-to-GDP Ratio 23

Figure 22. PV of Public Debt-to-GDP Ratio 23

Figure 23. Average predicted probability of receiving any business support measures in the Kyrgyz Republic: 2020-2022 period 27

Figure 24. Reasons for not accessing business support programs in the Kyrgyz Republic (across firm size groups): 2020-2022 period 28

Figure 25. (Mis)match between demand for and support received by businesses in the Kyrgyz Republic: 2020-2022 period (Shapley decomposition results) 29

Figure 26. Targeting of business support programs deployed in the Kyrgyz Republic: 2020-2022 period 30

Boxes 4

Box 1. Revision of Gross Domestic Product data 13

Annex Tables 34

Table A1. Specific business support policies received by firms in the Kyrgyz Republic (2020) 34

Table A2. Most preferred business support programs by firms in the Kyrgyz Republic (2020) 34

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