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Title page 1

Contents 1

Abstract 3

1. Introduction 4

2. Volatility measures 6

3. Volatility in family and household income 11

3.1. Income volatility in the USA 11

3.2. Income volatility in non-US countries 15

3.3. Decomposing income volatility by income source 16

3.4. Sub-annual perspectives on income volatility derived from surveys and small-N studies 18

4. Volatility in individual employment earnings 21

4.1. Earnings and labour market volatility in the USA 21

4.2. Earnings and labour market volatility in non-US countries 24

4.3. Using administrative record data to study within-year volatility 26

5. Earnings volatility in the UK: new evidence from a high frequency perspective 29

5.1. Updated survey-based volatility estimates from an annual perspective 29

5.2. PAYE data: HMRC and Linked-ASHE files 30

5.3. Pay volatility according to the PAYE data: a first look 34

5.4. Monthly pay volatility: breakdowns by sex, payslip type, and earnings level 36

5.5/5.4. Monthly pay volatility: additional subgroup breakdowns 39

5.6. Multiperiod volatility measures 42

5.7. Factors associated with high levels of pay volatility 42

6. Policy responses, earnings volatility, and the UK's Universal Credit 44

7. Summary and conclusions 47

8. References 49

Appendix A. Construction of consistent real monthly pay variables 67

Appendix B. Additional volatility time series charts for subgroups 75

Appendix C/Appendix D. Twelve-month pay volatility, with subgroup breakdowns 85

Appendix D. Volatility profiles for selected person types and volatility regressions 90

Appendix E. Comparisons of volatility distributions and volatility breakdowns: HMRC versus Linked-ASHE file estimates 101

Tables 64

Table 1. Month-to-month earnings volatility, by subgroup and volatility measure (all working at t-1 and t) 64

Figures 56

Figure 1. Volatility trends (monthly earnings a year apart): UK survey-based estimates 56

Figure 2. Pay volatility: changes in monthly earnings a month apart, a year apart, and change in annual earnings 57

Figure 3. Monthly earnings volatility, by sex 58

Figure 4. Monthly earnings volatility, by payslip type 59

Figure 5. Monthly earnings volatility, by decile group of earnings 60

Figure 6. Fractions with monthly earnings increase and decrease of at least 25%, by decile group of earnings 61

Figure 7. Bonuses as percentage of average weekly earnings, UK, by month and sector 62

Figure 8. Earnings volatility is higher in industries in which employers make greater use of zero-hours contracts 63

Appendix Tables 74

Table A1. Summary statistics for distributions on arc percentage changes in earnings 74

Table C1. Multiperiod (twelve-month) earnings volatility, by subgroup 88

Table D1. Volatility by profile type and index, all working at t-1 and t, pooled data 92

Table D2/Table D1. Volatility regressions 95

Table D3/Table D2. Volatility regressions, including earnings decile group as regressor 98

Table E1. Summary statistics for distributions on arc percentage changes in real earnings 104

Table E2. Period-pair volatility breakdowns: HMRC file versus Linked-ASHE file comparisons, sample is all working in months t-1 and t 112

Table E3. Twelve-month volatility breakdowns (all working all 12-months in FY): HMRC file versus Linked-ASHE file 114

Appendix Figures 71

Figure A1. Relative frequencies by band of arc percentage change in monthly earnings 71

Figure A2. Empirical cumulative distribution functions (ECDFs) for arc percentage changes in monthly earnings 72

Figure A3. CPIH monthly inflation rates, April 2010 to April 2024 73

Figure B1. Different volatility indices show the same patterns of seasonality and overall trends 75

Figure B2. Monthly pay volatility, by age group 76

Figure B3. Monthly pay volatility, by selected low-paid occupation 77

Figure B4. Monthly pay volatility, by selected high-paid occupation 78

Figure B5. Monthly pay volatility, by whether hourly paid or not 79

Figure B6. Monthly pay volatility, by whether works in the private or public sector 80

Figure B7. Monthly pay volatility, by whether has more than one job 81

Figure B8. Monthly pay volatility, by whether has a temporary job contract 82

Figure B9. Monthly pay volatility, by whether in same job more than one year 83

Figure B10. Monthly pay volatility, by whether working full-time or part-time 84

Figure D1. Monthly earnings volatility for selected subgroups of individuals 92

Figure E1. The distribution of arc percentage changes in monthly earnings (fractions per band) 102

Figure E2. Empirical cumulative distribution functions for arc percentage changes in monthly earnings 103

Figure E3/Figure E2. Monthly earnings volatility, all and working at t-1 and t 105

Figure E4/Figure E3. Monthly earnings volatility by sex 106

Figure E5/Figure E4. Fractions with monthly earnings increase and decrease of at least 25% 107

Figure E6/Figure E5. Monthly earnings volatility, by age group 108

Figure E7/Figure E6. Monthly earnings volatility, by monthly/weekly payslip type 109

Figure E8/Figure E7. Monthly earnings volatility, by whether has more than one job 110

Figure E9/Figure E8. Monthly earnings volatility, by decile group of earnings at t-1 111

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