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국회도서관 홈으로 정보검색 소장정보 검색

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Title page 1

Contents 1

Abstract 2

Non-technical summary 3

1. Introduction 4

2. Literature review 6

3. Data 8

4. Empirical Strategies and Methods 12

4.1. Panel Data Local Projections 12

4.2. Semiparametric Estimations of Reforms 13

5. Empirical Results 14

5.1. Evidence from Local Projections 14

5.2. Treatment Effects of Relevant Reforms 17

5.3. Robustness tests 18

6. Conclusion 19

References 21

Appendix: Dataset description 37

Acknowledgements 53

Tables 35

Table 1. Semiparametric estimates of the effect of reforms on monetary discipline 35

Table 2. Semiparametric estimates of the effect of reforms on credibility 36

Figures 27

Figure 1. Central bank independence: 1972-2023 27

Figure 2. CBI, monetary discipline and credibility 28

Figure 3. Money growth and policy interest rates (worldwide) 29

Figure 4. Results from instrumental variable local projections for legal CBI (LP-IV) 30

Figure 5. Results from instrumental variable local projections for legal CBI: political systems 31

Figure 6. Results from instrumental variable local projections for legal CBI: monetary regimes 32

Figure 7. State-dependence: different public debt regimes 34

Appendix Tables 37

Table A.1. Descriptive statistics of key variables 37

Table A.2. Data and data sources 38

Table A.3. Analyzed countries 40

Table A.4. Inflation goals by country 42

Appendix Figures 46

Figure A.1. Results from local projections, with CBI measures from Cukierman et al. (1992) 46

Figure A.2. Results from local projections: individual dimensions of the CBIE index 47

Figure A.3. Results from panel data local projections for de facto CBI: country groups 48

Figure A.4. Results from panel data local projections for de facto CBI: Low versus high CBIE 49

Figure A.5. Results from panel data local projections for de facto CBI: Non-linearities 50

Figure A.6. Results from panel data local projections for de facto CBI 51

Figure A.7. Results from panel data local projections for legal CBI - credit supply 52