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Title page 1

Contents 1

Overview 3

1. Introduction 5

1.1. Country context 5

1.2. Role of fiscal policy 6

1.3. Objective of this report 7

2. CEQ methodology 8

3. Application of CEQ to Mongolia 10

4. Distributional impact of Mongolia's fiscal system 14

4.1. Effects on poverty and inequality 14

4.2. International comparisons 16

4.3. Impact of direct taxes and transfers 18

4.3.1. Direct taxes 20

4.3.2. Direct transfers 22

4.4. Impact of indirect taxes and subsidies 25

4.4.1. Indirect taxes 26

4.4.2. Indirect subsidies 29

4.5. Impact of in-kind health and education benefits 32

5. Fiscal reforms to enhance equity and efficiency 35

5.1. Reforms to increase the progressivity of taxes 35

5.2. Reforms to enhance the efficiency and impact of social spending 36

6. References 38

7. Technical annex 39

7.1. Direct taxes 39

7.1.1. Personal income tax (PIT) 39

7.1.2. Social security contributions (SSCs) 41

7.1.3. Property tax 43

7.1.4. Macro-validation 43

7.2. Direct transfers 44

7.2.1. Social Welfare Fund 44

7.2.2. Social Insurance Fund 46

7.2.3. Other transfers 47

7.2.4. Macro-validation 47

7.3. Indirect taxes 47

7.3.1. VAT 47

7.3.2. VAT rebates 50

7.3.3. Excises 50

7.3.4. Macro-validation 51

7.4. Indirect subsidies 52

7.4.1. Utility subsidies 52

7.4.2. Mortgage subsidies 54

7.4.3. Macro-validation 55

7.5. In-kind transfers 56

7.5.1. Education 56

7.5.2. Health 57

7.5.3. Macro-validation 58

Tables 11

Table 1. Total revenue and grants in Mongolia (2022) 11

Table 2. Primary government expenditures in Mongolia (2022) 13

Figures 5

Figure 1. GDP growth 5

Figure 2. Poverty and inequality and GDP per capita 6

Figure 3. COVID-19 support packages in the East Asia and Pacific Region 7

Figure 4. Composition of tax revenues (percent of GDP) 12

Figure 5. Composition of government expenditures (percent of GDP) 14

Figure 6. Gini index with the inclusion of different taxes and transfers 15

Figure 7. Concentration and incidence of fiscal system by income decile 15

Figure 8. Poverty rate with the inclusion of different taxes and transfers 16

Figure 9. Change in inequality due to taxes and transfers by country (Gini points) 17

Figure 10. Change in poverty due to taxes and transfers by country (percentage points) 18

Figure 11. Marginal contribution of direct taxes and transfers 20

Figure 12. Concentration and incidence of direct taxes 20

Figure 13. Incidence of direct taxes by country income level (% of pre-fiscal income) 21

Figure 14. Formal employment and household income by decile of pre-fiscal income 21

Figure 15. Concentration shares of direct transfers 22

Figure 16. Incidence of direct transfers 23

Figure 17. Concentration shares of direct transfers by country income level 23

Figure 18. Cost-effectiveness and spending of social welfare programs 24

Figure 19. Marginal contribution of indirect taxes and transfers 25

Figure 20. Concentration shares of indirect taxes 26

Figure 21. Incidence of indirect taxes (% of disposable income) 27

Figure 22. Net incidence of indirect taxes and direct transfers (% of pre-fiscal income) 27

Figure 23. Impact of informality and VAT exemptions 28

Figure 24. Concentration shares of VAT rebates 29

Figure 25. Concentration shares of indirect subsidies 30

Figure 26. Incidence of indirect subsidies (% of pre-fiscal income) 30

Figure 27. Cost-effectiveness and spending of fiscal transfers and subsidies 31

Figure 28. Marginal contribution of in-kind education and health benefits to inequality reduction (Gini points) 32

Figure 29. Concentration shares of in-kind education benefits 33

Figure 30. Incidence of in-kind transfers (% of pre-fiscal income) 33

Figure 31. Cost-effectiveness of in-kind education and health benefits and spending 34

Figure 32. Concentration shares of in-kind health benefits by country income level 35

Boxes 8

Box 1. Construction of CEQ income concepts 8

Box 2. Approaches to incorporating old-age pensions and contributions in the CEQ framework 9

Box 3. Measures of progressivity and cost-effectiveness 18

Box Figures 19

Box Figure 3.1. Inequality-reducing and inequality-increasing concentration shares 19

Box Figure 3.2. Progressive, neutral, and regressive incidence curves 19

Annex Tables 39

Annex Table 1. Methods to allocate taxes and transfers in the CEQ 39

Annex Table 2. PIT: taxable income and tax rates 40

Annex Table 3. Tax deductions on employment income 40

Annex Table 4. Types of mandatory SSCs 41

Annex Table 5. Identification of contributors to mandatory and voluntary social security 42

Annex Table 6. Types of property taxes 43

Annex Table 7. Macrovalidation of taxpayers and amounts for direct taxes 44

Annex Table 8. Social Welfare Fund programs 45

Annex Table 9. Social Insurance Fund programs 46

Annex Table 10. Macro-validation of beneficiaries and amounts for direct transfers 47

Annex Table 11. Excise taxes in 2022 51

Annex Table 12. Macro-validation of indirect tax amounts 51

Annex Table 13. Residential electricity tariffs (2022) 52

Annex Table 14. Macro-validation of indirect subsidies 56

Annex Table 15. Per-student financing coefficients in 2022 56

Annex Table 16. Types of healthcare facilities in Mongolia 57

Annex Table 17. Macro-validation of in-kind transfers 58

Annex Figures 41

Annex Figure 1. PIT statutory and effective tax rates by income decile 41

Annex Figure 2. Share of consumption from informal sources by decile 50

Annex Figure 3. Average electricity consumption by month 53

Annex Figure 4. Average electricity consumption by month 54

Annex Figure 5. Number of Housing Mortgage Program loans by income group 55

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