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Title page 1

Contents 2

Executive summary 4

Introduction 6

Methodology 8

Conclusions 34

Appendix A. Narok CEP data wish list 36

Appendix B. User interface of the KoboCollect application 37

Appendix C. EAE functionalities (front end and back end) 38

Appendix D. OnSSET Python and specs-file input parameters 41

Appendix E. OnSSET scenario combinations 42

Appendix F. Affordability analysis, full results 43

Appendix G. Household questionnaire (primary data collection) 44

Appendix H. Replicating this methodology in other counties: Case study of Makueni County 50

Endnotes 53

References 53

Acknowledgements 54

About the authors 55

Tables 19

Table 1. Summary of existing electricity infrastructure in Narok County 19

Table 2. Multi-tier matrix for measuring access to household electricity supply 20

Table 3. Key assumptions for the modelled scenarios 21

Table 4. Capacity required for electrification in Scenario 1 21

Table 5. Investment required for Scenario 1 in 2024 and 2026 21

Table 6. Capacity of electrification technologies required 23

Table 7. Investment required for Scenario 2 in 2024 and 2026 24

Table 8. Capacity of electrification technologies 25

Table 9. Investment required in Scenario 3 in 2024 and 2026 25

Table 10. Affordability analysis 26

Table 11. Electrification technologies for unelectrified health care facilities 31

Table 12. Electrification technologies for unelectrified schools 32

Figures 9

Figure 1. CEP engagement process 9

Figure 2. Flow chart illustrating the process that was used for collecting, storing, analysing, and applying GIS data in the Narok CEP development process 11

Figure 3. Examples of Energy Access Explorer's high-resolution, multi-criteria prioritisation analysis 15

Figure 4. Analysis results based on the criteria defined in Figure 3 16

Figure 5. Additional level of detail for one of the top 20 priority locations based on user-defined criteria 16

Figure 6. Top locations identified compared with satellite imagery 17

Figure 7. Another priority location example 17

Figure 8. Electricity system infrastructure 19

Figure 9. Technology recommendations by settlement in 2026 for Scenario 1 22

Figure 10. Technology recommendations by settlement in 2026 for Scenario 2 23

Figure 11. Technology recommendations by settlement in 2026 for Scenario 3 24

Figure 12. Percent of population in Narok County served by each type of least-cost electrification technology by 2026 25

Figure 13. Map showing the Scenario 3 OnSSET results loaded into the EAE 27

Figure 14. Output results from the EAE showing the population settlements that have solar-based technology (mini-grid solar and stand-alone solar home systems)... 28

Figure 15. Output results from the EAE showing the population settlements that have wind-based technology (mini-grid wind) as the least-cost electrification option... 29

Figure 16. Output results from the EAE showing the population settlements that have hydro-based technology (mini-grid hydro) as the least-cost electrification option... 29

Figure 17. Map showing unelectrified health care facilities in Narok County as identified by GIS analysis 30

Figure 18. Map showing unelectrified schools in Narok County as identified by GIS analysis 31

Figure 19. Map showing potential areas for setting up power plants using various least-cost technology options in Narok under Scenario 3 33

Appendix Tables 38

Table C-1. Front-end functionalities of the Energy Access Explorer 38

Table C-2. Back-end functionalities of the Energy Access Explorer 39

Table D-1. OnSSET Python and specs-file input parameters 41

Table D-2. Specs-file input parameters (demographics) 41

Table E-1. OnSSET scenario combinations 42

Table F-1. Full results of the affordability analysis 43

Table G-1. Household survey protocol 44

Table H-1. Key assumptions for the modelled scenarios 50

Table H-2. Comparison of results from the three scenarios 50

Table H-3. Key assumptions for updated Scenario 2 51

Table H-4. Capacity required for electrification in Makueni County's updated Scenario 2 52

Table H-5. Investment required for Makueni County's updated Scenario 2 52

Appendix Figures 36

Figure A-1. Narok County Energy Plan data wish list 36

Figure B-1. KoboCollect application user interface 37

Figure C-1. Energy Access Explorer's front-end user interface 39

Figure C-2. Energy Access Explorer's back-end architecture 40

Figure H-1. Scenario 2 modelled with additional loads from PURE and non-residential buildings from Open Building Insights 51

Figure H-2. Output map of Makueni County's updated Scenario 2: Loads results 52

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