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Title page 1

Contents 3

Abstract 2

1. Introduction 4

2. Related Literature 5

3. Model 7

3.1. Modeling Framework 7

3.2. Incorporating Fat Tails Into the Modeling Framework 9

4. Empirical Application 11

4.1. Fitting Temperature Distributions 11

4.2. Fitting Conditional GDP Effects 15

4.3. Estimating Joint Parameters 16

4.4. Incorporating Uncertainty About Variance 17

4.5. Weighting Across Studies 17

4.6. Creating the Unconditional Distribution of GDP Effects 21

5. Results 22

5.1. Joint and Marginal Distributions 24

5.2. Comparison With Other Meta-Analyses in the Literature 26

6. Sensitivity and Robustness 28

6.1. Comparison Across Weighting Schemes 28

6.2. Wealth, Adaptation, and Omitted Factors 30

6.3. Comparison Across Estimation Approaches 32

References 36

Appendix A: Alternative Approaches to Estimating Joint Distribution Parameters 41

Appendix B: Data From the Studies Providing Values for Temperature and GDP Effects 48

Tables 14

Table 1. Distribution of Projected Temperature Changes by 2100 14

Table 2. Valuations, by Study Characteristic 19

Table 3. Weights Across Studies 20

Table 4. Distribution of GDP Effects in 2100, by Degrees of Freedom 22

Table 5. Comparison of This Paper With Others in the Literature: Statistics 28

Table 6. Study Weights Under Alternative Weighting Schemes 29

Table 7. Distribution of GDP Effects in 2100, by Weighting Scheme 29

Table 8. Sensitivity of Results to Dropping a Study 30

Table 9. Distribution of GDP Effects in 2100, With and Without Adjustments to Account for Adaptation to Climate Change 32

Table 10. Distribution of GDP Effects in 2100, by Estimation Procedure and Degrees of Freedom 34

Figures 8

Figure 1. Illustration of a Gaussian Mixture 8

Figure 2. Temperature Mixed Density 13

Figure 3. Mixture of Densities of GDP Effects 21

Figure 4. Cumulative Distribution Function for GDP Effects in 2100 23

Figure 5. Sensitivity of Results to Degrees of Freedom 24

Figure 6. Joint and Marginal Distributions 25

Figure 7. Conditional Distributions at 2 Degrees, 3 Degrees, and 4 Degrees Celsius 26

Figure 8. Comparison of This Paper With Others in the Literature: GDP Effects 27

Appendix Tables 49

Table B-1. Description of Dataset on Temperature Changes in 2100 49

Table B-2. Extended Summary of Dataset of Effects on GDP From Climate Change 50

Appendix Figures 52

Figure B-1. Global Emissions Under Emissions Scenarios 52

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