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Title page 1

Contents 1

Abstract 3

1. Introduction 4

2. Theoretical background 7

3. Narratives construction 10

4. Study 1: Measurement of private preferences 12

4.1. Design of the survey on private preferences 12

4.2. Results of the private preferences survey 13

5. Study 2: Measurement of public preferences in a static setting 16

5.1. Design of the survey on public preferences 16

5.2. Results of the public preferences survey 17

6. Study 3: Preferences over narratives endorsed in social media 23

6.1. Design of the field experiment 23

6.2. Results of the field experiment 27

7. Analyzing possible mechanisms 31

7.1. Users' activity on Twitter 31

7.2. Understanding the popularity of out-group hostility on social media 32

7.3. Polarization across settings 33

7.4. Study 4: Underlying mechanisms and additional results 34

8. Discussion 37

9. Conclusions 39

References 41

Appendix 48

A. Analysing German politicians' tweets 48

B. The role of individual characteristics 48

C. Changes in preferences for the endorsers 52

D. Interpreting the change in preferences 55

E. The role of beliefs: an alternative explanation 57

F. Narratives on vaccination 60

G. Details on the Twitter experiment 60

H. Emotions and political correctness 62

I. Beliefs over own and other parties preferred narratives and moral disapproval 66

J. Additional tables 71

K. Instructions for Survey 1 83

L. Instructions for Survey 2 89

Tables 20

Table 1. The probability of endorsing a narrative by private preferences and party groups 20

Table 2. Mann-Whitney ranksum tests and Cohen's d on H/O 30

Table 3. Likes and retweets in a subsample 33

Table 4. Polarization index by party and by setting 34

Table 5. Preferences and follow-backs by emotions 36

Figures 14

Figure 1. Private and static public preferences over narratives 14

Figure 2. Differences in private preferences over narratives between groups 15

Figure 3. Share of endorsers by political party and by narrative 18

Figure 4. Distinctivness ranking by party 21

Figure 5. Private and static public preferences over vaccination narratives 24

Figure 6. Thomas Meier 25

Figure 7. Comparison of preferences across settings 28

Figure 8. Pinned tweets by profile 30

Figure 9. Twitter activity of our sample, overall and restricted to those who follow-back Thomas 31

Appendix Tables 49

Table B1. Private preferences by party group and individual characteristics 49

Table B2. The probability of endorsing a narrative by private preferences and party groups 51

Table C1/Table C2. Change from private to public preference by the endorsers 53

Table C2/Table C1. Table with the frequency of public and private preferences 54

Table D1. Social image concerns for the endorsers and alternative mechanisms 56

Table H1. Preferences and follow-backs by political correctness 65

Table I1. Actual vs predicted supporters of own preferred narrative 68

Table I2. Beliefs on the most preferred narrative by other parties 70

Table J1. Descriptive statistics on our sample for Survey 1 71

Table J2. Descriptive statistics on our sample for Survey 2 72

Table J3. Balance of individual characteristics between Survey 1 and 2 73

Appendix Figures 52

Figure C1. Change in preferences between private and public for endorsers 52

Figure E1. Beliefs on narratives 57

Figure E2. Determinants of endorsing a narratives 59

Figure H1. Emotions by party and by narrative 63

Figure H2. Political correctness by party and by narrative 64

Figure I1. Forecast errors for beliefs on own and other parties' preferred narratives 67

Figure I2. Perceived level of disagreement 69

Figure I3. Moral disapproval by party 70

Figure J1. wordcloud of Trump tweets on migration during his presidency 73

Figure J2. Who-supports-what website 74

Figure J3. Private preferences over narratives - excluding low quality 75

Figure J4. Private preferences over narratives - Germans only 76

Figure J5. Comparison between private and public preferences - excluding low quality 77

Figure J6. Comparison between private and public preferences - Germans only 78

Figure J7. Follow-back by pinned tweet and by party - including those that later unfollow 79

Figure J8. Unfollow after follow-back by pinned tweet and by party group 80

Figure J9. Blocking by pinned tweet and by party group 81

Figure J10. Pairwise comparisons from regressions on pinned tweets 82

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