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Title page 1

Contents 3

Acknowledgements 4

Abbreviations 5

Executive Summary 6

Recent Developments 9

Real Sector 9

Inflation 11

Poverty and welfare 12

Monetary and Financial Sector Developments 13

External Sector 16

Fiscal Trends and Debt Sustainability 19

Outlook, Risks, and Reform Priorities 21

Near-term outlook, risks, and priorities 21

Reform priorities 23

Special Focus: Restoring Financial Stability for Sustainable Growth and Resilience 24

Summary and key messages 24

Introduction and background 24

Overview of Bangladesh's Financial Sector 25

Banking Sector Challenges: Structural Weaknesses, Regulatory Failures, and Political Interference Leading to Recent Turmoil 26

Banking crisis across the world: lessons and its implication for Bangladesh 30

Financial sector reforms in Bangladesh 32

Policy recommendations and conclusions 33

References 35

Tables 10

Table 1. Growth Rate (Real, percent) 10

Table 2. Poverty and Inequality Projections 13

Table 3. Key Monetary Indicators 13

Table 4. Balance of Payments 16

Table 5. Fiscal Outcomes (% of GDP) 20

Table 6. Selected Macroeconomic Indicators (annual percentage change, unless indicated otherwise) 22

Figures 10

Figure 1. Real GDP Growth and Contributions to Real GDP Growth 10

Figure 2. Growth in Real Wages (Low Paid/Unskilled) (y-o-y) 10

Figure 3. Inflation (Base: 2021-22, y-o-y) 11

Figure 4. Key Labor Market Indicators (2022-24) 12

Figure 5/Figure 4. Real Policy Rates 14

Figure 6/Figure 5. Real Interest Rates on Commercial Lending and Deposits (weighted average) 14

Figure 7/Figure 6. Growth rate of Net Foreign Assets, Net Domestic Assets, and Broad Money (y-o-y) 14

Figure 8/Figure 6. Growth of credit to the Private and Public Sector (y-o-y) 15

Figure 9/Figure 7. Bangladesh - BDT/US$ Exchange Rates 17

Figure 10/Figure 8. Gross Foreign Exchange Reserve 17

Figure 11/Figure 9. Remittance growth (y-o-y) 18

Figure 12/Figure 10. Outflows of Overseas Workers 18

Figure 13/Figure 11. Remittance inflows from major countries 18

Figure 14/Figure 12. Total Expenditure and Revenue Collection (Budget Estimate vs. Actual, % of GDP) 19

Figure 15/Figure 13. Composition of financial sector Assets, June 2024 25

Figure 16/Figure 14. Distribution of banking sector assets, March 2024 25

Figure 17/Figure 15. Banking sector deposits and loans 26

Figure 18/Figure 16. Banks aggregate balance sheet, June 2024 26

Figure 19/Figure 17. Banks non-performing loans and capital adequacy 27

Figure 20/Figure 18. Bank group wise NPL and capital adequcy, September 2024 27

Figure 21/Figure 19. Loans distribution and overdue rate by economic purposes, September 2024 28

Figure 22/Figure 20. Loans distribution and NPLs by MSME category, September 2024 28

Figure 23/Figure 21. Banks borrowing movement 29

Figure 24/Figure 22. Bank deposit and private credit growth 30

Figure 25/Figure 23. Banks Return on Assets (ROA) 30

Figure 26/Figure 24. Operational efficiency in banks: income generation per employee 30

Figure 27/Figure 25. Relationship between regulatory quality and NPL by countries, average 2019-22 30

Figure 28/Figure 26. Cost of systemwide banking crises, 1970-2021 31

Figure 29/Figure 27. Policy mix to resolve banking crises between high income and low-and middle income economies 31

Boxs 18

Box 1. Record inflow of remittances 18

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