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Title page 1

Contents 7

Acknowledgment 6

Executive summary 9

1. Introduction 19

2. Approach and methodology 23

2.1. Projecting the electricity demand 23

2.2. Varying quanta of clean energy capacities 24

2.3. Scenario descriptions 24

2.4. Model structure 25

2.5. Approach to add 100 GW of solar and wind capacities 26

2.6. Data inputs 27

2.7. Output of the simulations 27

2.8. System-cost calculations 27

2.9. Comparing pathways in terms of socio-economic and environmental outcomes 27

3. Model results and key insights 29

3.1. Ensuring 600 GW of non-fossil capacity by 2030 will make India's grid reliable and clean 29

3.2. To integrate 600 GW of non-fossil capacity by 2030 successfully, the system must become more flexible 35

3.3. A high RE pathway will help deliver affordable electricity 41

4. Evaluating transition pathways: Socio-economic and environmental performance 45

4.1. The ambitious clean energy pathway offers enormous benefits 45

4.2. Realising the socio-economic benefits will require overcoming barriers to RE deployment and integration 46

4.3. Coal-based power plants face delays in commissioning 48

5. Policy recommendations 49

6. Limitations and future scope 53

Annexure 1: Input and assumptions 54

Acronyms 57

References 58

Tables 41

Table 1. Raising the non-fossil target to 600 GW is a cost-effective way to meet India's electricity demand in 2030 41

Table 2. A high-RE pathway will remain cost-effective, even if the technology costs are 10 per cent higher than anticipated 42

Table 3. The high-RE scenarios can reliably meet both the moderate and high demand with lower system costs 43

Figures 23

Figure 1. India's electricity demand is growing faster than anticipated 23

Figure 2. Simulations for India's power system to meet the rising demand with varying clean energy ambitions 24

Figure 3. For each scenario we followed a four-step sequential approach 26

Figure 4. The share of coal in the generation remains high (44-59% across scenarios) to reliably meet the projected demand for 2030 30

Figure 5. Even with the current and planned capacities, India will face consistent shortages in 2030 31

Figure 6. 876 GW of generation capacity can help reliably meet the demand in 2030 31

Figure 7. Additional RE capacity beyond the targeted 500 GW must be diversified across states 32

Figure 8. India will see persistent shortages of 1-2 GW on a daily basis in 2030 if the planned non-fossil and new coal capacities are delayed 33

Figure 9. The 600 GW-high demand scenario will provide an additional 4% margin to handle uncertainties 34

Figure 10. The ramping requirements will increase by five to six times the current requirement in the 500 GW-high demand and 600 GW-high demand scenarios 35

Figure 11. BESS supports high system ramping requirements 36

Figure 12. BESS will meet the steep ramping requirement during the early morning and evening hours 37

Figure 13. Coal serves as a flexible resource throughout the year 38

Figure 14. A balanced RE mix will reduce the requirement for energy storage 39

Figure 15. Hydro generation mimics the net load requirement, especially during and post-monsoon months 40

Figure 16. 2-3 GW of the early morning agricultural demand can be shifted to solar hours 40

Figure 17. Flexible options only make up 2-7% of the system costs 42

Figure 18. At the current pace of RE capacity addition, achieving the stated-RE target would be difficult 46

Figure 19. Coal units have historically taken 7-10 years to commission 48

Boxes 47

Box 1. Barriers to deploying RE at a faster rate 47

Annex Tables 54

Table A1. State-level RE capacity addition across low, stated and high RE scenarios 54

Table A2. Cost assumptions for system cost calculations 55

Table A3. 16-65 GW transmission limits are needed to be relaxed to meet the demand reliably, across scenarios 56

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