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Title page 1

Contents 1

Abstract 2

Non-technical summary 3

1. Introduction 5

2. Modeling Housing-Literature Review 9

3. A 'Canonical' Life Cycle Model of Housing 13

3.1. Model Statement 13

3.2. Discussion of the Model 19

4. Estimation and Identification 22

4.1. Calibration 23

4.2. Structural Estimation 28

4.3. Identification 29

5. Structural Estimates 33

5.1. Estimates of Expectations, Institutions and Preferences 34

5.2. Model Fit 39

6. Decomposing Cross-Country Differences in Housing Wealth 42

6.1. The Decomposition 42

6.2. The Extensive Margin of Housing Wealth: Homeownership Rates 43

6.3. The Intensive Margin of Housing: Housing Wealth 46

7. Comparison of Estimates with External Evidence 48

7.1. Evidence from Survey-Based House Price Expectations 48

7.2. Evidence on the Quality of Rental Markets 51

8. Conclusions 52

References 54

Appendices 60

A. The Model in Detail and the Solution Method 60

B. Computation 66

C. Estimation of Income Processes 73

D. Additional Tables and Figures 78

Acknowledgements 93

Tables 24

Table 1. Calibration of Parameters 24

Table 2. Structural Estimates 35

Table 3. Comparison of Our Structural Estimates with External Data, Percent 36

Table 4. Decomposition of the Variation in Average House Price Beliefs: Individual and Time Fixed Effects 50

Table 5. Estimates of Variances of Permanent and Transitory Income Shocks 77

Table 6. Correlates of Individual House Price Beliefs 78

Figures 6

Figure 1. The Extensive and the Intensive Margins of Housing Wealth: Homeownership and the Value of Housing Wealth 6

Figure 2. Optimal Housing Status as Function of Liquid Market Resources m and Housing Wealth h - An Example 20

Figure 3. Median Non-Asset Disposable Income by Age 25

Figure 4. Identification of Parameters 31

Figure 5. Identification of the Correlation between House Price Beliefs and Time Preferences κ 33

Figure 6. Estimated Relationship Between the Discount Factor and House Price Expectations 40

Figure 7. Fit of Moments: Homeownership Rates and Housing Wealth–Income Ratios 41

Figure 8. Decomposition of Homeownership Rates 44

Figure 9. Decomposition of the Mean Gross Housing Wealth–Income Ratios of Homeowners 47

Figure 10. Dispersion of 1-Year and 5-Year Ahead House Price Growth Expectations 49

Figure 11. Identification of the Strength of Bequest L 79

Figure 12. Identification of the Mean Discount Rate ϑ 80

Figure 13. Identification of the Spread of the Discount Rate ϑ 81

Figure 14. Fit of Moments-Germany 82

Figure 15. Fit of Moments-Spain 83

Figure 16. Fit of Moments-France 84

Figure 17. Fit of Moments-Italy 85

Figure 18. Fit of Moments-United States 86

Figure 19. Decomposition of Homeownership Rates: Germany → Spain I 87

Figure 20. Decomposition of Homeownership Rates: Germany → Spain II 88

Figure 21. Decomposition of Mean Housing Wealth: Germany → Spain I 89

Figure 22. Decomposition of Mean Housing Wealth: Germany → Spain II 90

Figure 23. Dispersion of 1-Year Ahead House Price Growth Expectations 91

Figure 24. Real House Prices 92

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