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Title page 1

Contents 1

Abstract 2

1. Introduction 4

2. Green Goods Trade Landscape and Labor Markets 7

2.1. Data 7

2.2. Philippines' Green Trade Landscape 8

2.3. Green Goods Trade and the Labor Market 12

2.4. Trade Policies and Green Goods 13

2.5. Trade Policies and the Labor Market 17

3. Estimating the Effect of Trade Policies on Green Goods 19

4. Could an Increase in Green Trade Affect Workers? 26

4.1. Methods 27

4.2. Discussion 29

5. Conclusion 33

References 35

Appendix 37

Tables 23

Table 1. Share of energy transition affected by costly NTMs in PH (reform Candidates) 23

Table 2. Share of other green goods affected by costly NTMs in PH (reform candidates) 24

Table 3. Relationship between the green goods trade, the share of females, and the share of high skilled workers in the Philippines 30

Table 4. Relationship between the green goods trade and earning across gender and skill levels (without industry fixed effects) 32

Table 5. Relationship between the green goods trade and earning across gender and skill levels (with industry fixed effects) 33

Figures 8

Figure 1. Data sources 8

Figure 2. Share of EG imports values in total imports and Share of EG exports values int otal exports in the Philippines, 2014-2020 10

Figure 3. Share of EG imports values in total imports and Share of EG exports values in total exports in the Philippines and other ASEAN countries, 2019 10

Figure 4. % Share of green goods imported by industries (A) and exported by industries at 2-digit ISIC level 2018-2020 (average) (B) 11

Figure 5. Green goods trade and labor market gender in the Philippines 12

Figure 6. Green goods trade and skills intensity in the Philippines 13

Figure 7. Average FR and CR top 20 NTMs on Green Goods in the Philippines, 2014-2020 16

Figure 8. Average Frequency Ratio and Coverage Ratio of Certification requirements (B83) on different types of Green Goods in PH 2014-2020 16

Figure 9. Correlations between the share of college graduates and average duty within industries, and the share of female workers and average duty rate within industries 18

Figure 10. Correlations between the share of college graduates and average number of NTMs per products within industries, and the share of female workers... 18

Figure 11. AVEs of NTMs on all Green Goods 22

Figure 12. AVE of NTMs on Energy Transition Products 23

Figure 13. AVE of NTMs on other Environmental Goods 24

Figure 14. Affected import values of 5 Reform candidate NTMs in the PH relative to regional peers 25

Appendix Tables 39

Table A1. Estimation for AVE of NTM between green goods and other goods, for Philippines only, considering all NTMs (in line with Figure 11 (A)) 39

Table A2. Estimation for AVEs of specific green goods types in the Philippines relative to other ASEAN countries considering all NTMs (in line with Figure 11 (B)) 39

Table A3. Estimation for AVEs of NTMs on Energy transition products in the Philippines only considering the most prevalent NTMs (in line with Figure 12) 40

Table A4. Estimations for AVE of NTMs on other environmental goods in the Philippines only considering the most prevalent NTMs (in line with Figure 13) 41

Table A5. Estimation for significant AVE for all goods for Philippines relative to ASEAN countries considering all NTMs, 2014-2020 41

Table A6. Estimation for significant AVE of NTMs by SNA classification for Philippines relative to ASEAN countries considering all NTMs, 2014-2020 42

Table A7. Estimations for significant AVE of NTMs by HS Section of goods for Philippines relative to ASEAN countries considering the most prevalent NTMs, 2014-2020 43

Table A8. Estimations for significant AVE of NTMs by HS Section of goods for Philippines relative to ASEAN countries considering the most prevalent NTMs, 2014-2020, con't 43

Table A9. Average Coverage Ratio and Frequency Ratio over sample period 2014-2020 for Philippines - All products 44

Table A10. Average Coverage Ratio and Frequency Ratio over sample period 2014-2020 for Philippines - SNA Classification of goods - Capital 45

Table A11. Average Coverage Ratio and Frequency Ratio over sample period 2014-2020 for Philippines - SNA Classification of goods - Consumption 46

Table A12. Average Coverage Ratio and Frequency Ratio over sample period 2014-2020 for Philippines - SNA Classification of goods - Intermediate 47

Table A13. Average Coverage Ratio and Frequency Ratio over sample period 2014-2020 for Philippines - SNA Classification of goods - Raw Material 48

Table A14. Average Coverage Ratio and Frequency Ratio over sample period 2014-2020 for Philippines - By HS sections (Animal, Animal or Vegetable By products) 49

Table A15. Average Coverage Ratio and Frequency Ratio over sample period 2014-2020 for Philippines - By HS sections (Arms and Ammunition, Chemical) 50

Table A16. Average Coverage Ratio and Frequency Ratio over sample period 2014-2020 for Philippines - By HS sections (Footwear Headgear and Other Apparel,... 51

Table A17. Average Coverage Ratio and Frequency Ratio over sample period 2014-2020 for Philippines - By HS sections (Mineral, Miscellaneous, Optical Medical... 52

Table A18. Average Coverage Ratio and Frequency Ratio over sample period 2014-2020 for Philippines - By HS sections (Pearls and Precious Metals, Plastics... 53

Table A19. Average Coverage Ratio and Frequency Ratio over sample period 2014-2020 for Philippines - By HS sections (Pulp and Papers, Skin and Leather,... 54

Table A20. Average Coverage Ratio and Frequency Ratio over sample period 2014-2020 for Philippines - By HS sections (Vegetables) 55

Table A21. Average Coverage Ratio and Frequency Ratio over sample period 2014-2020 for Philippines - By HS sections (Vehicles Aircraft and Vessels,... 56

Appendix Figures 37

Figure A1. Green Goods Based on End-Use Classification and Function (% share within each category) 37

Figure A2. Share of Green Goods Exports and Imports within Industries (% share within each category) 38

초록보기

Green goods trade will matter for the transition to a low-carbon global economy as well as for its adaptive capacity to climate events. This study explores green goods trade and related trade policies in the Philippines and its relationship with the labor markets. The paper finds that the country’s green goods trade is limited due to certain costly non-tariff measures affecting energy transition and other types of green goods. Of about 90 measures, five are identified as reform candidates. Reforming these could enhance green goods trade, as there is a positive correlation between imports and exports of green goods. However, increased exports could reduce the number of high-skilled workers, while imports might increase the shares of female workers within industries. Green goods imports also correlate with higher earnings across industries. The study suggests that trade policy reforms may lead to labor shifts, necessitating complementary policies for affected workers when making trade policies more climate-friendly.

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