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Title page 1

Contents 1

Executive Summary 1

Context 1

Introduction 2

Research Methods 4

Results And Key Takeaways 8

Conclusion 21

APPENDIX A: BIOMASS SOURCES AND RESTRICTIONS 22

APPENDIX B: SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS 23

APPENDIX C: BIOMASS USE IN 2050 ACROSS SCENARIOS 24

APPENDIX D: DIRECT AND TOTAL LAND USE 25

APPENDIX E: BIOMASS SYNTHESIS PATHWAYS 26

APPENDIX F: ENERGYPATHWAYS AND RIO METHODOLOGY 27

APPENDIX G: DOWNSCALING METHODOLOGY 29

Abbreviations 31

Endnotes 31

References 32

Acknowledgments 36

About the authors 36

Tables 5

Table 1. Data sources and feedstocks for Billon-Ton, adjusted R2R, and current policy scenarios for 2050 5

Table 2. Comparison of ILUC factors and Carbon Opportunity Cost 7

Table 3. Biomass end uses in 2050 in primary scenarios in exajoules (EJ) 10

Table 4. Biomass use by feedstock category in 2050 in primary scenarios 14

Figures 9

Figure 1. US Economy-wide emissions reductions trajectories in 'Current Policies' and 'Adjusted R2R' scenarios 9

Figure 2a. Sankey diagram of present day biomass use 11

Figure 2b. Sankey diagram of biomass use in 2050 in 'Adjusted R2R' scenario 12

Figure 3. Biomass use by feedstock category for primary scenarios from 2025 to 2050 13

Figure 4. Land devoted to biomass production in 2050 in Billion-Ton scenario 15

Figure 5. Comparing the use of certain biomass technologies in the Billion-Ton and adjusted R2R scenarios 16

Figure 6. Comparison of carbon removal costs from biomass hydrogen energy with carbon capture and storage versus biomass sequestration in the Billion-Ton scenario 17

Figure 7. Biomass use by technology 18

Figure 8. Corn ethanol use without and with COC 19

Boxes 3

Box 1. Key terms 3

Box 2. Aviation fuels 19

Appendix Tables 24

Table C-1. Biomass use in 2050 across scenarios 24

Table C-2. Conversion factors from gigajoule of energy to ton of biomass 25

Table D1. Direct and total land area use in 2050 across scenarios 25

Appendix Figures 28

Figure F-1. RIO decision variables and temporal scales 28

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