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Title page 1

Contents 3

Executive summary 4

1. Search in Australia: looking back and the current landscape 11

1.1. Searching online in Australia 11

1.1.1. What is general search? 11

1.1.2. General search over time 12

1.1.3. Some possible alternatives to traditional general search 15

1.2. Google has maintained its dominance in search 16

1.2.1. Google has the majority of market share 17

1.2.2. Entry and exit 17

1.2.3. Commercial relationships 18

1.2.4. General search services and AI 22

1.3. Regulatory change and enforcement actions are occurring internationally, but their impact is still developing 22

1.3.1. The European Union's Digital Markets Act 22

1.3.2. The UK's Digital Markets, Competition and Consumers Bill 28

1.3.3. Relevant investigations in general search services 29

2. Generative AI and general search services 30

2.1. Introduction to generative AI 30

2.1.1. What is generative AI? 30

2.1.2. The generative AI supply chain 31

2.1.3. AI investments and partnerships relevant to search 33

2.2. Use of generative AI in general search 38

2.2.1. Google and Microsoft's AI-powered search 39

2.2.2. Other AI-powered search services 42

2.3. Potential impacts of generative AI on search 45

2.3.1. Generative AI may not be changing the structure of search 45

2.3.2. Potential changes to search business models 47

2.4. Regulatory developments 48

2.4.1. International regulatory developments 48

2.4.2. Policy initiatives in Australia 50

3. Search quality 51

3.1. Search quality in general search 51

3.1.1. Search service providers and quality 51

3.1.2. Incentives to compete on quality 52

3.2. Certain features that affect quality 55

3.2.1. The impact of advertising on search quality 56

3.2.2. The relationship between website quality and search result quality 62

3.2.3. Personalisation and targeting 69

3.2.4. Result diversity 74

3.3. Generative AI and search quality 78

3.3.1. Some potential effects of generative AI on search 79

3.3.2. Some potential implications for consumers' search experience 85

3.3.3. Potential longer-term developments that may impact quality 90

3.4. Conclusion 91

Competition and Consumer (Price Inquiry-Digital Platforms) Direction 2020 92

Part 1. Preliminary 95

1. Name 95

2. Commencement 95

3. Authority 95

4. Definitions 95

Part 2. Price inquiry into supply of digital platform services 97

5. Commission to hold an inquiry 97

6. Directions on matters to be taken into consideration in the inquiry 97

7. Directions as to holding of the inquiry 98

8. Period for completing the inquiry 98

Figures 13

Figure 1.1. Google search engine results page in 1998 and 2024 13

Figure 1.2. Examples of search engine results page information summary features 14

Figure 1.3. August 2024 Operating System, Device, Browser and Search Engine market shares 16

Figure 1.4. Market shares of key browsers in Australia with Google Search as the pre-set search engine 2021 & 202471 20

Figure 1.5. Android's Choice Screen in response to EU's Digital Markets Act 24

Figure 2.1. AI, foundation models and consumer-facing generative AI products 30

Figure 2.2. Processes of training and deploying foundation model 32

Figure 2.3. The AI search supply chain, and Google and Microsoft's presence throughout the chain through first-party products and partnerships 34

Figure 2.4. Bing Chat integrated into Bing's results page 40

Figure 2.5. Google AI Overviews (Left) and Gemini (Right) 41

Figure 2.6. Key recent developments in AI-powered search 44

Figure 3.1. Google's global revenue in 2023 53

Figure 3.2. Sponsored carousel ad placement on a results page of Google Search for the query 'running shoes' 57

Figure 3.3. The appearance of sponsored and non-sponsored links on a results page of Bing for the query 'running shoes' 58

Figure 3.4. The evolution of sponsored links labels on Google's search engine results page 60

Figure 3.5. The process by which a search engine crawls, culls, sorts and ranks web results on the internet-numbers refer to web results 62

Figure 3.6. Landing page of a highly ranked website on Google Search for the query 'chocolate cake recipe' 67

Figure 3.7. Illustrations of personalisation: non-personalised results, results with adjusted ranking, and results with adjusted content 70

Figure 3.8. An illustration of result diversity vs limited result diversity 76

Figure 3.9. Google AI Overviews search result on desktop and mobile 80

Figure 3.10. Microsoft Bing search results - generative search result on desktop and Bing search result on mobile 81

Figure 3.11. OpenAI SearchGPT result 82

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