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Title page 1

Contents 6

ABBREVIATIONS 8

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 9

FOREWORD 10

HORDHAC 11

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 12

FULINTA KOOBAN 16

RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS 20

1. Somalia Macroeconomic Summary 21

1.1. The Global and Regional Economy 21

2. Recent Economic Developments in Somalia 22

3. Medium-Term Outlook and Risks 33

4. Conclusion and Summary Policy Options 38

SPECIAL FOCUS: SOMALIA CLIMATE CHANGE AND ADAPTATION POLICY ACTIONS 40

5. The Context of Climate Change in Somalia 41

6. Climate Trends and Impacts 43

6.1. Climate Overview 43

6.2. Climate Disasters 44

6.3. Chronic Climate Change Stresses on Agricultural Productivity 45

6.4. Heat Stress and Human Health 47

7. Social and Economic Impacts 49

7.1. Damage and Physical Capital 50

7.2. Impacts on Labor and Human Capital 51

7.3. Agricultural Production 52

7.4. Large-scale Displacement 53

7.5. Poverty and Vulnerability 54

7.6. Climate, Fragility and Conflict 57

8. Integrating Climate Considerations into Somalia's Development 58

8.1. Resilience to and Preparedness for Extreme Climate Events 60

8.2. Build Resilience into Somalia's Development 61

8.3. Accessing Finance for Climate Adaptation Related Activities 63

REFERENCES 64

Tables 7

Table 2.1. Government fiscal operations, 2022-2024 28

Table 2.2. Fiscal operations at sub-national governments 30

Table 2.3. Somalia: Decomposition of total public debt over the HIPC initiative 32

Table 3.1. Selected economic and poverty indicators (% of GDP unless otherwise indicated) 33

Table 7.1. Summary of Somalia's climate risks with magnitude and trend measures 50

Table 7.2. Projected impacts of coastal flooding with 25-year return period, excluding damage to crops and livestock 51

Table 7.3. Heat impacts on labor productivity, by sector (percentage change) 52

Figures 7

Figure 2.1. Somalia annual contribution to total GDP growth (growth rate percentage points) 22

Figure 2.2. Agriculture production rebounded in 2023, from the 2020-23 severe drought 23

Figure 2.3. Inflationary pressures eased, driven by decline in food prices 25

Figure 2.4. Overall banks' performance signals increasing confidence in Somalia's financial sector 26

Figure 2.5. Trade activities rebounded in 2023 26

Figure 2.6. Remittances have remained relatively resilient to recurrent shocks 27

Figure 2.7. FGS revenue mobilization efforts are paying off, even though the base remains low 27

Figure 2.8. Increasing FGS wage bill, while sector spending is skewed toward security and administration 29

Figure 2.9. Revenue performance remains strong, but still too low to cover increasing expenditure needs 31

Figure 5.0. Country climate vulnerability index versus readiness index score 42

Figure 6.1. Projected mean annual temperature 43

Figure 6.2. Projected mean annual precipitation 43

Figure 6.3. Trends in Somalia's largest daily maximum temperature and precipitation 44

Figure 6.4. Projections of the annual number of days (with max. temperature above 35℃) for different greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios 44

Figure 6.5. Projected annual SPEI Drought Index 45

Figure 7.1. Weather-related disasters in Somalia, 2008-23 53

Figure 7.2. Share of households affected by drought by residency and consumption quintile, 2022 54

Figure 7.3. Poverty headcount by region and share of population exposed to climate shocks, 2022 54

Figure 7.4. Violence, food insecurity, and internal displacement across Somalia 56

Boxes 7

Box 2.1. Recurrent climatic shocks are intensifying Somalia's already fragile environment 24

Box 3.1. Somalia's external debt profile 35

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