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Title page 1

Contents 6

CCDR @GLANCE 3

List of Acronyms 8

Acknowledgement 11

Executive Summary 12

1. The Link Development-Fragility-Climate Change 23

1.1. Economic and social development 23

1.2. Climate Change 24

1.3. Fragility 26

1.3.1. Conceptual Framework: Development-Fragility-Climate Nexus 27

1.4. The way forward 28

2. Climate Commitments, Policies, and Capacities 31

2.1. Navigating the Nexus Through Institutional and Governance Reform 31

2.2. Development Aspirations 32

2.3. Climate Commitments 33

2.4. Climate commitments and national and sectoral strategies 34

2.4.1. Climate-informed legislation and coordination mechanisms 34

2.4.2. Institutional readiness for Climate Change Action 35

2.4.3. Enhancing Institutional Frameworks for Effective Climate Action 37

2.5. Climate Finance 38

2.6. Solutions to enhance climate commitments, policies, and strategies 39

2.7. The Way Forward on the Nexus 40

3. Wealth, Climate and Fragility: A Sector Perspective 42

3.1. Introduction 42

3.2. Understanding CAR's Vicious Cycle 42

3.2.1. Development and Fragility in CAR 42

3.2.2. Climate Vulnerability 43

3.2.3. Human Capital: Education and Health 49

3.2.4. Physical Capital: Urban Development, Transport, and Energy 53

3.2.5. Social Dimensions of Climate Change and the Risk of Conflicts 58

3.2.6. Private sector, Climate, Development and Fragility 61

4. Macro and Distributional Impacts 63

4.1. Key Takeaways 63

4.2. Introduction 64

4.3. Methods Used and Approach 65

4.4. Main Findings 66

4.4.1. The Prerequisite of Economic Development 66

4.4.2. How Adequate Climate Measures Would Bring Net Gains 71

4.5. Integrating Policies for Development and Climate 75

5. Summary and main recommendations 77

5.1. Summary 77

5.2. Main Recommendations 78

References 81

Tables 33

Table 2.1. Comparing CAR's Commitments taken in the NDC and the NAP 33

Table 2.2. Governance and Institutional Solutions to Enhance Development and Climate Benefits 39

Table 3.1. Assessment of Proposed Solutions for the Forestry Sector 44

Table 3.2. Assessment of Proposed Solutions for the Agriculture Sector 45

Table 3.3. Assessment of Proposed Solutions for CAR's Water Sector 47

Table 3.4. Proposed Solutions for Combating Drought, Desertification, and Land Degradation 49

Table 3.5. Solutions for Climate-Smart Education Sector in CAR 52

Table 3.6. Summary of Assessment of Proposed Solutions for CAR's Health Sector 53

Table 3.7. Summary of Assessment of Proposed Solutions for CAR's Urban and DRM Sector 55

Table 3.8. Summary of Assessment of Proposed Solutions for CAR's Transport Sector 57

Table 3.9. Summary of Assessment of Proposed Solutions for CAR's Energy Sector 58

Table 3.10. Social Dimensions- Proposed Solutions 60

Table 3.11. Opportunities for leveraging the private sector in climate adaptation 62

Table 4.1. Estimated macro-poverty costs (in level) of climate uncertainties by 2050 64

Table 4.2. GDP Losses and Increases in Poverty Headcount, BAU and ASP by 2050 (No Climate Action) 71

Table 4.3. Net Gains from Climate Adaptation Measures 73

Table 4.4. GDP Losses 75

Table 5.1. Solutions and Financing Mechanisms by Type and Horizon 78

Figures 23

Figure 1.1. Estimated IDP population1 in CAR 23

Figure 1.2. The Development-Fragility-Climate Nexus in CAR 29

Figure 1.3/Figure 1.2. The Path towards prosperity, resilience, and sustainability in CAR: A framework for action 30

Figure 2.1. Institutional Overview of CAR (benchmarked in comparison to other SSA countries) 38

Figure 4.1. Trajectories of GDP per Capita (in 2020 US$) and Poverty Headcount (Percentage of Population) under the BAU and ASP Scenarios 64

Figure 4.2a. Total GDP Impacts (percent) of the Combined "Wet/Warm" and "Hot/Dry" Paths by 2050 under the BAU Scenario 66

Figure 4.2b. Poverty Headcount Impacts (percentage points) of the Combined "Wet/Warm" and "Hot/Dry" Paths by 2050 under the BAU Scenario 67

Figure 4.2c. Profile of additional poor due to climate change 68

Figure 4.2d. Share of population exposed to an extreme weather event by type of event and region 69

Figure 4.3a. Total GDP Impacts (percent) of the Combined "Wet/Warm" and "Hot/Dry" Paths by 2050 under the ASP Scenario 70

Figure 4.3b. Poverty Headcount Impacts (percent) of the Combined "Wet/Warm" and "Hot/Dry" Paths by 2050 under the ASP Scenario 71

Figure 4.4a. Total GDP Impacts (percent) of the Combined "Wet/Warm" and "Hot/Dry" Paths by 2050 under the ASP-CR Scenario 72

Figure 4.4b. Poverty Headcount Impacts (percentage) of Adding Adaptation Measures by 2050 under the ASP-CR Scenario 73

Boxes 69

Box 4.1. The welfare effect of climate: a deeper look at the impact of extreme weather events 69

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