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Title page 1

Contents 4

Acknowledgments 3

Executive Summary 5

1. Major trends in the supply of solar modules and wind turbines 6

2. A brief overview of recent developments in the solar and wind value chains 12

3. The broader policy environment affecting the solar and wind value chains 16

4. Quantifying manufacturing subsidies for solar and wind equipment 19

5. Conclusions and policy implications 23

References 26

Annex A. Data sources and firm sample 29

Annex B. A brief description of the value chains for solar PV modules and wind turbines 32

Annex C. Additional supporting material 36

Figures 4

Figure 1. The past two decades have witnessed major changes in how and where solar panels and wind turbines are manufactured 8

Figure 2. Materials remain the largest cost component in the production of both solar panels and wind turbines 9

Figure 3. The dramatic increase in solar production capacity since 2020 has coincided with falling module prices and lower capacity utilisation 10

Figure 4. Production capacity for solar modules vastly exceeds global demand 12

Figure 5. The largest China-based manufacturers of solar modules have integrated vertically over time 14

Figure 6. China has become the largest exporter of solar cells and modules and, more recently, wind turbines 15

Figure 7. Subsidies have been considerably larger for producers of solar PV cells and modules than for producers of wind turbines 20

Figure 8. Bank acceptances account for a large share of all below-market borrowings in solar and wind 22

Figure 9. Solar cells and modules were the most subsidised sector in the OECD MAGIC database between 2005 and 2022 23

Figure 10. A combination of falling output prices and higher input costs have lowered the profits of producers of solar modules and wind turbines 24

Boxes 4

Box 1. Overcapacity in the solar module value chain is a concern for both governments and companies 11

Annex Tables 4

Table A A.1. Firm sample 30

Annex Figures 4

Figure A B.1. The five manufacturing stages involved in the production of solar modules 32

Figure A B.2. Value-chain segments occupied as of 2023, by company covered 33

Figure A B.3. The final assembly of wind turbines depends on five main products 33

Figure A C.1. Annual solar and wind generation capacity installed in MW, by jurisdiction 36

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