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Title page 1

Contents 4

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 5

INTRODUCTION 6

RECENT EVOLUTION OF EU TRADE 10

SUPPLY CHAIN TENSIONS FOR EU IMPORTERS 19

SUPPLY CHAIN ADJUSTMENT STRATEGIES OF EU FIRMS 23

BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT AND FIRM CHARACTERISTICS SUPPORTING SUPPLY CHAIN ADJUSTMENTS 31

IMPORT RESILIENCE AS A CORNERSTONE OF EXPORT PERFORMANCE 39

CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY MESSAGE 43

REFERENCES 44

APPENDIX: SURVEY QUESTIONS USED IN THE FIGURES 46

Tables 11

Table 1. Trade tensions in 2015-2025 and their impact 11

Figures 10

Figure 1. EU trade flows 10

Figure 2. Extra-EU energy trade flows 10

Figure 3. Global shipping costs 12

Figure 4. Extra-EU and intra-EU trade of goods 12

Figure 5. Trade balance in goods of the European Union with the United States and China 12

Figure 6. EU trade balance in services with the United States and China 12

Figure 7. Change in the EU import portfolio, by trading partner 13

Figure 8. Change in the EU import portfolio, by product class 13

Figure 9. Change in the EU, US and Chinese export portfolios 14

Figure 10. Major trade-related obstacles for EU importers 19

Figure 11. Supply chain tensions for EU importers, by sector 20

Figure 12. Supply chain tensions, by importer status and origin of import partners 20

Figure 13. Supply chain tensions for extra-EU importers, by origin of import partners 20

Figure 14. Origin of essential inputs and high risk of supply disruptions 21

Figure 15. Supply chain tensions for firms importing essential inputs from outside the European Union and China 21

Figure 16. Adjustments to trade tensions 23

Figure 17. Intensity of trade tensions and adjustments 23

Figure 18. Adjusters to trade tensions 24

Figure 19. Non-adjusters to trade tensions 24

Figure 20. Adjustments to trade tensions, by origin of trading partners 24

Figure 21. Adjustments to trade tensions, by input type and high risk of supply disruptions 24

Figure 22. Diversification of imports 25

Figure 23. Extra-EU import substitution 25

Figure 24. Difficulty to find alternative suppliers to substitute essential inputs 26

Figure 25. Importance of factors when choosing a new supplier outside the European Union 26

Figure 26. Difference between firms using unique technology and other firms in choosing a new supplier outside Europe 27

Figure 27. Investment barriers for EU importers 31

Figure 28. Adjustments made by firms according to the number of barriers reported 32

Figure 29. Adjustments to trade tensions, by digital and non-digital firms 32

Figure 30. Adjustments to trade tensions, by innovative and non-innovative firms 32

Figure 31. Adjustments to trade tensions, by firms receiving and not receiving financial support 33

Figure 32. Input costs, selling prices and expectations 34

Figure 33. Expectations for input costs and selling prices, by origin of import partner 34

Figure 34. Cost pass-through to customers, comparing firms reporting major trade tensions to firms not reporting any major trade tension 35

Figure 35. Change in production structure 39

Figure 36. Export performance and expectations 39

Figure 37. Export performance, intra-EU vs. extra-EU 40

Figure 38. Expected export performance, intra-EU vs. extra-EU, by sector 40

Figure 39. Diversification of exports inside and outside the European Union, by export destination 41

Figure 40. Export expectation and supply chain adjustments 41

Figure 41. Adjustments to trade tensions, by export performance category 41

Boxes 4

Box A. STRATEGIC INDUSTRIAL DIVERSIFICATION IN THE EUROPEAN UNION: INSIGHTS FROM THE CRISP FRAMEWORK 15

Box B. DECARBONISING SUPPLY CHAINS - A DESTINATION AT THE END OF A BUMPY ROAD 28

Box C. SUPPLY CHAIN SHOCKS, MANAGERIAL RESPONSES, AND RESILIENCE 36

Box Figures 16

Figure A1. Product Complexity Index and relatedness density of the European Union 16

Figure A2. The role of rule of law in enabling specialisation in complex products 17

Figure B1. Decarbonisation monitoring, by trade status 28

Figure B2. Decarbonisation progress 28

Figure B3. Decarbonisation plans, transition risks and firm size 29

Figure B4. Obstacles to decarbonisation 29

Figure C1. Supply chain strategies and firm resilience post-COVID 36

Figure C2. Supply chain shocks and firms' strategic responses 37

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