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소장정보 검색

국회도서관 홈으로 정보검색 소장정보 검색
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Title page 1

Contents 1

Abstract 1

1. Introduction 2

2. Decarbonization scenarios 6

3. Model and data 7

3.1. Model 7

3.2. Data 9

3.2.1. Baseline data 9

4. Emission effects 12

4.1. Decomposing changes in global emissions 12

4.2. Decomposing emission changes by region 14

4.3. Decomposing emission changes by policy instrument 16

4.4. Leading to different global warming patterns 18

5. Impact of decarbonization on trade 19

5.1. Impact on global and regional export shares 19

5.2. Impact of CNZ-P on energy trade 23

5.3. Comparison of trade effects across different technology variants of CNZ 28

6. Impact of decarbonization on development of different regions 31

6.1. Real income effects 31

6.2. Employment Effects: Employee Churn 33

6.3. Trade and RCA patterns and the role of diversification 35

6.4. Importance of export sophistication 39

7. Conclusion 41

References 43

Appendix A. Formal model description 46

Appendix B. Calibration of parameters 61

Appendix C. Calculation of scale, composition and technique effects 63

Appendix D. Detailed description of the scenarios 65

Appendix E. Technical details of the scenarios 69

Appendix F. Aggregation of regions 73

Tables 11

Table 1. Growth projections macroeconomic variables (annual per cent change) 11

Table 2. % Change in Fossil Fuel Prices by 2050 37

Figures 13

Figure 1. Long Run Emission Pathways 2050 13

Figure 2. Decomposition of emission reductions into scale, sectoral composition, geographic composition and technique effects 13

Figure 3. Emissions by fossil fuels and sectors 14

Figure 4. Emissions Split By Region 15

Figure 5. Emissions Split By Fuel Region 15

Figure 6. Correlation between current income levels and emissions per capita 16

Figure 7. Emissions Split By Instrument 17

Figure 8. Emissions Split By Instrument and Region 18

Figure 9. Global warming implications of the scenarios 19

Figure 10. Global export shares 21

Figure 11. Regions' shares in the total exports of a sector, 2022 and 2050 levels across scenarios 23

Figure 12. Variation in energy exports and production by region and by scenario 25

Figure 13. Global Energy Exportability 29

Figure 14. Regional Energy Exportability 30

Figure 15. Change in Real Household Income Relative to Baseline by 2050 32

Figure 16. Correlation between the change in real household income in 2050 and current income levels 33

Figure 17. Employee Churn 35

Figure 18. Change in Exports Relative to Global Inaction by 2050 36

Figure 19. Revealed comparative advantage in 2050 38

Figure 20. Impact of having the link between export sophistication and growth on changes in real GDP relative to baseline (2050) 39

Figure 21. Correlation between the change in sophisticated exports in CNZ-P relative to baseline, and the change in GDP growth due to the export sophistication shock (2050) 41

Appendix Tables 57

Table A.1. Overview of Taxes in the Model 57

Table B.1. Behavioral Parameters in the Model 62

Table B.2. Enery Related Paramaters 63

Table E.1. Average Fossil Fuel Subsidy Rates by Region 72

Table F.1. Aggregation of regions 73

Appendix Figures 58

Figure A.1. Production structure 58

Figure A.2. Household demand structure 59

Figure E.1. Evolution of LCOE for Solar PV for the newly installed plants 70

Figure E.2. Evolution of weighted-LCOE for Solar PV 71

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