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https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/e5fd5b34-c048-11f0-a612-01aa75ed71a1/language-en?WT.mc_id=Selectedpublications&WT.ria_c=41957&WT.ria_f=6415&WT.ria_ev=search
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Title page 1
Contents 3
Acknowledgements 5
Authors 5
Abstract 6
Executive summary 7
1. Introduction 12
1.1. A new policy context for return 12
1.2. Challenges and evidence gaps in return policy 15
1.3. Objectives and research design of the report 15
2. Mapping irregular migration and return processes in the EU 18
2.1. The scope 18
2.2. The map of irregularity pathways 18
3. Mapping of national practices and data 28
3.1. Pathways into irregularity 28
3.1.1. Third-country nationals who do not fulfil conditions of entry 30
3.1.2. Third-country nationals who no longer fulfil conditions of entry or stay 34
3.1.2.1. Overstay when a Schengen visa is not required 34
3.1.2.2. Overstay after a visa or residence permit 35
3.1.2.3. Overstay after unsuccessful asylum applications 37
3.2. Being identified as irregularly staying 41
3.2.1. Obligation to leave 42
3.2.2. Postponement of the obligation to leave or of removal 46
3.2.3. Evasion of the enforcement of the obligation to leave 53
3.3. Exiting irregularity 53
3.3.1. Return 54
3.3.1.1. Practices on voluntary return 54
3.3.1.2. Statistics on return by type 55
3.3.2. Access to a residence permit or authorisation to stay 57
3.3.2.1. National practices 57
3.3.2.2. Statistics on residence permits or authorisations to stay 61
4. Possible solutions 65
4.1. Interlinked databases 65
4.2. Irregular migration management dashboard 68
5. Conclusions 72
References 74
List of abbreviations and definitions 93
Annex 1. Estimates of irregular migrants 96
Annex 2. Obligation to leave in national legislation 98
Annex 3. Status of the order to leave and asylum decisions for selected nationalities in Germany 99
Annex 4. Tolerated stay statuses and temporary residence permits 100
Annex 5. Residence permit or authorisations to stay 101
Annex 6. Elements for an irregular migration dashboard 105
Tables 94
TABLE 1. Ratios between first instance rejections and orders to leave for selected nationalities in the period 2021-2023, by Member State 40
TABLE 2. Types of Duldung issued in Germany as of 30 June 2023 52
Figures 94
FIGURE 1. Map of irregularity pathways - summary 7
FIGURE 2. Map of irregularity pathways 19
FIGURE 3. TCNs found to be illegally present after irregular entry, and TCNs ordered to leave, cumulated period 2021-2023 32
FIGURE 4. National and EU data on irregular entries: unauthorised entry from crime statistics, refusals of entry at any border, refusals of entry... 33
FIGURE 5. Persons found to be illegally present due to irregular entry in Germany in national and Eurostat data, 2022 33
FIGURE 6. Proportion of third-country nationals ordered to leave and found to be illegally present who are visa-exempt, 2021-2023 35
FIGURE 7. Asylum rejections at first and final instance, persons found to be illegally present, and orders to leave (OTL), in the period 2021-2023, by Member State 38
FIGURE 8. Proportions between negative decisions at first or final instance and TCNs ordered to leave, or persons found to be illegally present, 2021-2023 39
FIGURE 9. Orders to leave issued by France since 2014, in absolute numbers and as a share of EU total 46
FIGURE 10. Possible outcomes of suspended of return decisions due to obstacles to return 47
FIGURE 11. Toleration cards issued in Austria, 2011-2022 51
FIGURE 12. DESTATIS, Code: 12531-0007. Blue: Duldung (60(a) of the Residence Act, required to leave, deportation temporarily suspended),... 52
FIGURE 13. Total returns and returns by type in the period 2021-23 56
FIGURE 14. TCNs ordered to leave, returned following an order to leave and granted an authorisation or permit to stay in Austria, France and Spain.... 62
FIGURE 15. Peitz (2025) analysis on cumulative incidence of competing pathways out of irregularity 66
FIGURE 16. Revised map of irregularity pathways 69
FIGURE 17. MirreM estimates on irregular migration stock, minimum and maximum 97
Boxes 95
Box 1. Proposal for a Common European System for Returns 13
Box 2. Return Directive: scope 20
Box 3. EU statistics on irregular entry 21
Box 4. Return Directive: loss of regular status 22
Box 5. EU statistics on persons who lost the authorisation to stay 22
Box 6. Return Directive: issuance of return decisions and its suspension 23
Box 7. EU statistics on return decisions 24
Box 8. Return Directive: returns and residence permits or authorisation to stay 25
Box 9. EU statistics on returns 26
Box 10. Refused entry at the border or its proximity 30
Box 11. National data on irregular entries, Germany 32
Box 12. Data on visas and overstayers; the Visa Information System (VIS) and the Entry-Exit System (EES) 36
Box 13. Asylum rejections and orders to leave by selected nationalities across five Member States 39
Box 14. Magnitude of orders to leave in France 45
Box 15. Duldung in the German legislation 48
Box 16. Special protection permits in Italy 50
Box 17. German national data on Duldung and orders to leave 52
Box 18. Access to residence permits in Germany 58
Box 19. Access to residence permits in Spain 60
Box 20. Quality issues affecting the reliability of the AZR for statistical purposes 67
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