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Title page 1

Contents 2

Executive Summary 4

I. Introduction 7

II. The PKK in Iraq: An Irritant in Bilateral Ties 10

A. A Long, Grinding Conflict 10

B. Turning a New Page in Iraqi-Turkish Security Cooperation 13

C. An End in Sight? 15

III. Water Scarcity: A Sovereign Priority 19

A. A Growing National Security Priority in Iraq 19

B. Limited Progress in Water Diplomacy 22

IV. The Dispute over Iraqi Oil Exports to Türkiye 26

V. Developing the Development Road 30

VI. Strengthening Turkish-Iraqi Ties at a Time of Regional Upheaval 35

VII. Conclusion 39

Appendix A: The Struggle Over Sinjar 40

Appendix B: Map of the Euphrates-Tigris Basin 42

Appendix C: Abnormal Precipitation in the Euphrates-Tigris Basin 43

Appendix D: Map of the Iraq-Türkiye Pipeline 44

Appendix E: Map of the Development Road Initiative 45

Appendix F: About the International Crisis Group 46

Appendix G: Reports and Briefings on the Middle East and North Africa since 2022 47

Appendix H: International Crisis Group Board of Trustees 49