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Title page 1

Contents 9

Acknowledgements 3

Executive Summary 4

1.0. Introduction 14

2.0. Context 15

2.1. Early Experiments Before FDRE in India (2019-2023) 17

2.2. The Shift Toward Storage 18

2.3. Overview of the FDRE Tendering Landscape 20

2.4. Impediments to Scaling FDRE 22

2.4.1. High Costs Associated With DFR Thresholds 22

2.4.2. Surplus Generation and Market Exposure 22

2.4.3. Land, Supply Chain, Infrastructure, and Regulatory Barriers 23

2.4.4. Financial and Institutional Constraints With Discoms 23

3.0. Approach and Methodology 25

3.1. Quantitative Analysis 27

3.1.1. Selection of Wind-Solar-Storage Combinations for FDRE 28

3.1.2. Annual Generation 30

3.1.3. LCOE Estimate of Solar, Onshore Wind, and Battery Storage 33

3.1.4. Benchmarking Effective FDRE LCOE Against TPPs 33

3.1.5. Adoption Trajectory of FDRE 34

3.2. Cost Gap 35

3.3. Externalities of Coal-Based Thermal Power 35

3.4. Macroeconomic Impacts 35

3.5. Qualitative Analysis 37

4.0. Results 38

4.1. Effective LCOE for FDRE 38

4.2. Estimating the Cost Gap for FDRE 39

4.3. Externalities 41

4.4. Macroeconomic Results 45

5.0. Discussion 50

5.1. Alternative Procurement and Financial Support Pathways for Firmed Renewable Energy 52

5.1.1. Contracts for Difference 52

5.1.2. Australia's Capacity Investment Scheme 54

5.1.3. PJM Interconnection and IESO Procurement Models 54

5.1.4. Lessons for FDRE 55

5.2. Overcoming Other Barriers to the Competitiveness of Firmed Renewables 55

6.0. Recommendations 57

References 58

Appendix A. Compilation of FDRE Tenders in India 69

Appendix B. Assumptions for Onshore Wind Levelized Cost of Electricity Estimation 71

Appendix C. Estimating Externalities of Thermal (Coal) Power 73

Appendix D. Methodology for Estimating Jobs From Firm and Dispatchable Renewable Energy 78

Tables 10

Table 1. Combinations of wind, solar, and storage considered to estimate effective LCOE for FDRE 29

Table 2. Estimated externalities associated with coal combustion in India 42

Table 3. Employment creation from FDRE generation and losses from coal substitution 48

Figures 10

Figure ES1. Cumulative cost gap estimation for FDRE (compared to coal) between fiscal year (FY) 2025 and FY 2050 for the 50% surplus-sold scenario 5

Figure ES2. Cost-competitiveness of FDRE and coal power after accounting for the costs of externalities 6

Figure 1. Timeline and status of FDRE tenders awarded by central agencies 21

Figure 2. Present status of FDRE tenders for different FDRE configurations 21

Figure 3. Summary of research methodology 25

Figure 4. Conceptual approach to cost gap analysis 27

Figure 5. Scenario-wise revenue realization based on committed generation and the sale of surplus power in the open market 31

Figure 6. Methodology to estimate effective LCOE values for FDRE 32

Figure 7. FDRE adoption trajectory 34

Figure 8. Causal loop diagram on the systemic approach for macroeconomic analysis 36

Figure 9. Typical effective LCOE estimated in case 1: 30% surplus-sold and 100% surplus-sold scenarios 38

Figure 10. Validating simulated effective LCOEs for FDRE with several recently finalized bid-based LCOE values 39

Figure 11. Cost gap estimation for 100%, 50% and 30% surplus sold scenarios 40

Figure 12. The year of grid parity for FDRE depends on the share of excess generation from FDRE that could be sold in the open electricity market 40

Figure 13. Impact of the FDRE benchmark/LCOE crossover on the cumulative cost gap 41

Figure 14. Cost competitiveness of FDRE vs. coal (after factoring in externalities cost associated with thermal power generation) 43

Figure 15. Impact of FDRE adoption on the energy bill, average 2025-2050 46

Figure 16. Required FDRE support, as a share of the public budget 46

Figure 17. Required FDRE public support, as a share of GDP 47

Boxes 11

Box 1. Why is India experimenting with FDRE tenders? 16

Box 2. Demand fulfilment ratio 18

Box 3. Balancing firmness with viability: Penalties and incentives for FDRE 19

Box 4. Valuing the full range of capacity and flexibility services that battery storage can provide 24

Box 5. Government support measures for solar PV, BESS, and onshore wind 26

Box 6. FGD retrofitting costs, exemptions, and the FDRE advantage 44

Box 7. Timelines for commissioning new coal pithead plants and FDRE 44

Box 8. Solar-plus-BESS and FDRE: Complementary pathways 51

Equations 11

Equation 1. Estimating cost gap 28

Equation 2. Estimating annual solar power generation 32

Equation 3. Estimating annual wind power generation 32

Equation 4. Estimating annual storage requirement 32

Equation 5. Estimating the total cost of the FDRE system 32

Equation 6. Estimating the total generation 32

Equation 7. Estimating the additional revenue from selling surplus electricity in the open market 33

Equation 8. Effective LCOE of FDRE 33

Equation 9. Estimating the cost gap 35

Appendix Tables 10

Table A1. FDRE tenders issued between FY 2023-FY 2025 69

Table B1. Assumptions used in our onshore wind LCOE estimation 71

Table C1. Social cost of externalities 76

Table D1. Job coefficients for solar, wind, and battery storage technologies 78

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