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Title page 1

Contents 1

Abstract 2

1. Introduction 3

2. Institutional Features and Design of Kalshi Markets 8

2.1. Overview 8

2.2. Traditional Forecasting Approaches 10

2.2.1. Survey-Based Forecasts 10

2.2.2. Market-Based Forecasts 12

2.3. Volume 12

3. Converting Kalshi into Probability Distributions 13

4. Time-Series Comparisons to Existing Benchmarks 16

5. Distributional Comparisons to Existing Benchmarks 19

6. Forecast Performance of Kalshi 25

6.1. Probability Integral Transform 27

7. Distributional Responses to News 28

7.1. Fed Funds Rate Responses to Macro News 28

7.2. Event-study regressions for fed funds rate beliefs 32

7.2.1. Macro news surprises 32

7.2.2. Monetary policy surprises 32

8. Conclusions 35

References 35

Appendix A. Midpoint of Bid-Ask Spreads 41

Tables 9

Table 1. Kalshi Markets of Interest 9

Table 2. Forecast Tools 11

Table 3. Forecast Accuracy: Benchmark Forecasts versus Kalshi 27

Table 4. Kalshi Fed Funds Rate Distribution Responses to Macro Surprises 33

Table 5. Kalshi Fed Funds Rate Distribution Responses to MP Shocks 34

Figures 5

Figure 1. FOMC Federal Funds Rate Forecast Errors Comparison 5

Figure 2. Volume Heatmap for Kalshi Federal Funds Rate Forecasts 13

Figure 3. Volume Time Series for Kalshi Federal Funds Rate Markets (Log Scale) 14

Figure 4. Fed Funds Rate for December 2025 contract 15

Figure 5. FOMC Federal Funds Rate Comparisons 16

Figure 6. Probability of Most Likely Rate Outcome Before July 2025 FOMC 17

Figure 7. Kalshi CPI Comparisons to Bloomberg Consensus 18

Figure 8. Year of 2025 Comparisons 19

Figure 9. Unemployment Comparisons 20

Figure 10. Fed Funds Futures vs Kalshi Sept. and Oct. 2025 FOMC Meetings 21

Figure 11. SOFR Options vs Kalshi Q4 2025 FOMC Meeting 22

Figure 12. End of Year 2025 Distributions for CPI and Real GDP Growth 23

Figure 13. End of Year 2025 Stagflation Risks 24

Figure 14. Headline, Core CPI and Unemployment Forecast Errors Comparison 26

Figure 15. Probability Integral Transform 29

Figure 16. Federal Funds Rate Distribution Responses to Economic News 31

Figure 17. Federal Funds Rate Distribution Responses to CPI Inflation Surprises 31

Appendix Figures 41

Figure A.1. Midpoint of Bid-Ask Spread: Fed Funds Rate Forecast Errors 41

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