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Title page 1

Contents 1

Abstract 1

Non-Technical Summary 2

1. Introduction 3

2. Literature Review 5

3. Gravity Estimation 7

4. Construction of Ad-Valorem Equivalent Shocks 11

5. Economic Model 16

5.1. Firms' Production 16

5.2. International Trade and Foreign Affiliate Sales 17

5.3. Allocation of Global Saving, FDI, and Trade Balance 17

6. Quantitative Findings 18

6.1. Foreign Affiliate Sales and Foreign Direct Investment Flows 18

6.2. GDP Impacts 25

6.3. Impact of FDI Productivity Spillover Mechanism 28

7. Conclusion 28

References 31

Appendix A. Sectoral and regional aggregations 34

Appendix B. Data Development 38

Appendix C. The Construction of the Sales Data 54

Appendix D. Additional Results for the Gravity 57

Appendix E. Model Description 60

Appendix F. Additional Quantitative Results 75

Tables 10

Table 1. Gravity Estimation Results 10

Figures 13

Figure 1. IFI Score Changes by economy 13

Figure 2. AVE Cost Reduction 14

Figure 3. Average AVE Cost Reduction by Income Group 15

Figure 4. Value Added Structure 17

Figure 5. Demand Structure 18

Figure 6. Saving Structure 19

Figure 7. Cumulative FAS changes 20

Figure 8. Cumulative changes in foreign affiliate sales by sector 21

Figure 9. Cumulative FDI inflow changes 22

Figure 10. Cumulative FDI outflow changes 23

Figure 11. Cumulative FDI flow changes 24

Figure 12. Cumulative GDP changes 25

Figure 13. Relationship between IFD shocks and GDP changes 26

Figure 14. Cumulative real income changes 27

Figure 15. Cumulative GDP changes when positive spillover is introduced 29

Appendix Tables 35

Table A.1. Aggregated regions, their descriptions, and corresponding economies 35

Table A.2. Allocation of Sectors to Broad Categories 36

Table A.3. Economy Abbreviations (used in Tables with projected IFI changes) 37

Table B.1. Dimensional Coverage Across FDI Stock and FAS Data Sources 39

Table B.2. Sector List with Concordance to GTAP Database and ISIC Revision 4 43

Table B.3. FDI Sector-by-Sector Gravity Estimation 44

Table B.4. FDI Sector-by-Sector Gravity Estimation (Continued) 45

Table B.5. FDI Sector-by-Sector Gravity Estimation (Continued) 46

Table B.6. FDI Sector-by-Sector Gravity Estimation (Continued) 47

Table B.7. Three-dimensional FATS Data, Breakdown by Methodology Flag 49

Table B.8. FAS Sector-by-Sector Gravity Estimation 50

Table B.9. FAS Sector-by-Sector Gravity Estimation (continued) 51

Table B.10. FAS Sector-by-Sector Gravity Estimation (continued) 52

Table B.11. FAS Sector-by-Sector Gravity Estimation (continued) 53

Table D.1. Cross-sector Gravity Estimation 58

Table D.2. Additional Robustness Tests Gravity Estimation 59

Table E.1. Overview taxes in the model 69

Table E.2. Model Parameterization 73

Appendix Figures 75

Figure F.1. Cumulative trade volume changes 75

Figure F.2. Cumulative FAS changes under spillover 76

Figure F.3. Cumulative FDI inflow changes under spillover 77

Figure F.4. Cumulative export volume changes under spillover 78

초록보기

This paper presents quantitative projections on the expected economic impact of the Investment Facilitation for Development (IFD) Agreement, which proceeds in three steps.

First, we estimate the empirical impact of the host-economy investment facilitation environment on foreign affiliate sales.

Second, we map the agreement's mandatory and soft obligations (including best-endeavour) into ad-valorem equivalent reductions in the costs of multinational production.

Third, the economic effects of these policy shocks are projected with a multi-region, multi-sector economic model that explicitly incorporates affiliate sales, foreign direct investment (FDI) and input-output linkages.

Our benchmark simulations project that implementation of the IFD Agreement's mandatory obligations would increase global real GDP by 0.8 per cent over the next ten years, driven by a substantial expansion in global FDI flows and foreign affiliate sales.

The simulations indicate that developing and low-income economies are expected to see the largest increases in GDP, since they are expected to see the largest improvement in the investment facilitation environment.

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