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Title page 1

Contents 3

Acknowledgement of Country 2

Glossary 4

Key results 5

Key industry insights and developments 6

Executive summary 7

1. Introduction 9

1.1. Government direction to monitor domestic airline services 9

2. Industry developments 10

2.1. Middle East conflict disrupts international travel, while jet fuel prices increase 10

2.2. Domestic seat capacity growth continues to outpace demand 14

2.3. The Qantas Group and Virgin Australia report mid-year growth and profitability 16

2.4. Qantas agrees to settle class action relating to COVID-19 flight credits 19

2.5. Strong international travel demand prompts new routes and services 19

2.6. Government provides funding to support regional and remote airport recovery 21

2.7. Sydney Airport Demand Management Scheme reform updates 21

3. Industry activity and service reliability 22

3.1. Demand peaks in late 2025 before seasonal January slowdown 22

3.2. On-time performance improved overall, but cancellation rates varied between airlines 24

4. Competition and connectivity 27

4.1. The Qantas Group and Virgin Australia continue to dominate the domestic aviation market 27

4.2. Airline connections decline in late 2025 28

5. Airfares and jet fuel prices 30

5.1. Average airfares followed seasonal trends over the quarter to January 2026 30

5.2. Jet fuel prices to move away from recent lows 32

6. Aviation workforce challenges 34

6.1. The aviation workforce is evolving 34

6.2. Workforce challenges amidst rising demand 36

6.3. Policy initiatives to address workforce challenges 39

Tables 29

Table 1. Proportion of routes by route type and number of airlines - January 2026 29

Figures 13

Figure 1. Daily Brent crude oil and jet fuel prices (US$), 2 January 2026 to 16 March 2026 13

Figure 2. Underlying EBIT by select business segments, the Qantas Group - H1 2023-24, H1 2024-25 and H1 2025-26 16

Figure 3. Underlying EBIT by select business segments, Virgin Australia Group - H1 2023-24, H1 2024-25, H1 2025-26 18

Figure 4. Monthly passenger levels and seat capacity - 2019, 2024, 2025 and 2026 22

Figure 5. Passenger levels on routes connecting larger cities - January 2019, 2025 and 2026 24

Figure 6. Airline on-time performance rates (arrivals) - January 2024 to January 2026 25

Figure 7. Airline cancellation rates - January 2024 to January 2026 26

Figure 8. Share of passengers serviced by airline across all domestic routes - January 2024 to January 2026 27

Figure 9. Number of domestic routes operated by airlines - January 2023 to January 2026 28

Figure 10. Index of real average fare revenue per passenger - January to December, 2019, 2024, 2025 and 2026 30

Figure 11. Index of real average fare revenue per passenger by route type: January 2019 to January 2026 31

Figure 12. BITRE real cheapest airfare index, by airfare type - January 2019 to January 2026 32

Figure 13. Real jet fuel and Brent crude oil prices (A$) - January 2019 to January 2026 33

Figure 14. Key aviation workforce issues 36

Boxes 11

Box 1. Rights to remedies for cancelled travel 11

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