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Title page 1

Contents 3

Acknowledgement of Country 2

Overview 5

Gas stores vital to meeting southern gas demand through winter 2026 5

Producer prices increase as buyers seek to secure supply for 2027 6

LNG netback price series will be maintained 6

Part 1: Update on conditions in the east coast gas market 8

1. East coast supply-demand outlook for quarter 3 2026 9

1.1. Introduction 9

1.2. Risk of gas shortfall over winter 2026 10

1.3. Storage inventories vital to meeting southern state demand through winter 2026 12

1.4. LNG producers expect to produce less gas and sell more in spot sales in quarter 3 2026 15

2. Domestic price outlook 17

2.1. Introduction 17

2.2. Long-term GSA prices in the east coast gas market 18

2.3. Volumes for 2026 supply tail off as suppliers focus on 2027 supply 20

2.4. Slightly less flexible terms for 2027 supply in both retailer and producer GSAs 22

Part 2: LNG netback price series review 24

Executive summary 25

1. Introduction 25

2. Current LNG netback price methodology 27

3. Key issues for the review 29

3.1. Is the price series achieving its objectives? 29

3.2. What are the most appropriate reference prices? 32

3.3. What should the reference timeframes be? 36

3.4. How should other costs be accounted for? 39

4. Outcomes of the review 40

Appendix A: Actuals compared to forecast for quarter 3 2025 42

Appendix B: Change in domestic demand forecast 44

Appendix C: Approach to reporting on GSA prices 46

Glossary 47

Tables 16

Table 1.1. LNG producers' updated forecasts for quarter 3 2026 (PJ) 16

Table 2.1. Producer and retailer GSAs by pricing mechanism, agreed between Oct and Dec 2025 20

Table 2.2. Count and volumes of long-term GSAs for supply in 2026 and 2027 21

Figures 28

Figure 1. Stylised example of how LNG prices are netted back 28

Boxes 26

Box 1. What are LNG netback prices? 26

Box 2. Report from FTI Consulting 26

Box 3. Submissions to the review 27

Box 4. Current reference prices and timeframes 28

Box 5. Incremental costs for LNG supply 29

Box 6. Formula for calculating LNG netback prices 29

Box 7. Consultation question on objectives 29

Box 8. Consultation questions on reference prices 32

Box 9. Consultation questions on reference timeframes 36

Box 10. Consultation questions on other considerations 39

Box 11. Outcomes of the LNG netback price series review 41

Charts 11

Chart 1.1. Supply-demand outlook for April to September 2026 (PJ) 11

Chart 1.2. Reasons for change in quarter 3 2026 supply-demand outlook (December 2025-March 2026) 12

Chart 1.3. Southern states supply-demand outlook for April to September 2026 (PJ) 13

Chart 1.4. Year-on-year Iona underground storage levels 14

Chart 1.5. Year-on-year flows on the South-West Queensland Pipeline 15

Chart 2.1. Gas commodity prices in the east coast gas market for 2026 supply 18

Chart 2.2. Gas commodity prices in the east coast gas market for 2027 supply 19

Chart 2.3. Cumulative volumes contracted under long-term GSAs for supply years 2021-2027 21

Chart 2.4. GSA take-or-pay multipliers and load factors for supply in 2026 and 2027 23

Appendix Tables 42

Table A.1. Comparison of forecast vs actuals for Q3 2025 (PJ) 42

Appendix Charts 44

Chart B.1. Forecast GPG demand higher in most quarters of 2026 (PJ)22 44

Chart B.2. Residential, commercial and industrial demand forecasts lower in 2026 due to falling demand from industrial users and increased electrification (PJ) 45

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