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Title page 1

Contents 4

ABBREVIATIONS 7

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 8

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 10

1. INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES 18

Context: Agricultural finance and disaster risk in Burkina Faso, Kenya, Madagascar, and Rwanda 21

Study methodology and analysis 23

Main characteristics of the participating institutions and their agricultural lending 24

Impact of the most recent disaster 26

2. MEASURES UNDERTAKEN TO SUPPORT VIABLE BORROWERS AND MANAGE LOAN DEFAULT 31

Implementing forbearance measures 32

Providing new credit facilities 35

3. ESTIMATING AND MANAGING LOAN WRITE-OFFS FOR NONVIABLE BORROWERS 39

4. DEALING WITH DISASTERS: CHALLENGES AND AVAILABLE INSTRUMENTS 45

Financial safety nets and disaster risk liquidity facilities for agricultural lenders 49

Regulatory measures and international experience 50

Public policies and unintended consequences 54

5. RECOMMENDATIONS TO ENHANCE AGRICULTURAL CREDIT RISK MANAGEMENT 57

Strengthen the technical capacity and risk management mechanisms of the financial sector 58

Integrate disaster risk in the regulatory and supervisory framework 60

Improve the effectiveness of public sector interventions 60

REFERENCES 62

ANNEX 1: THE CASE OF LA POSITIVA: CREDIT-LINKED HYBRID CROP INSURANCE 68

ANNEX 2: THE CASE OF APOLLO AGRICULTURE: DIGITIZATION AND CREDIT-LINKED INSURANCE 70

ANNEX 3: THE CASE OF ACELI AFRICA: PORTFOLIO-LEVEL RISK SHARING 72

ANNEX 4: LOAN CLASSIFICATION AND PROVISIONING: BURKINA FASO, KENYA, MADAGASCAR, AND RWANDA 74

ANNEX 5: AGRICULTURAL CREDIT RISK MANAGEMENT STUDY QUESTIONNAIRE 76

Tables 6

Table 1. Recommendations for financial institutions, regulators, and policy makers 16

Table 2. Risk management strategies for lenders and the public sector 19

Table 3. Count of disaster events by peril and country, 2019-2024 23

Table 4. Count of disaster events by peril and country, 2019-2024 24

Table 5. Agricultural loan portfolio at risk at the peak, by entity type 27

Table 6. Defaulting borrowers considered viable and repayment after the last disaster event, by type of lender 28

Table 7. Share of agricultural loan portfolio written off after a disaster, by type of impact assessment 29

Table 8. Average effectiveness of forbearance measures used, by entity type 34

Table 9. Measures used to deal with the consequences of a disaster and loan write-offs 37

Table 10. Loan write-offs after a disaster, by charter 40

Table 11. Borrowers benefiting from forbearance measures or additional financing, by lender's charter 41

Table 12. Exposure to agriculture and loan write-offs after a disaster, by loan portfolio size 42

Table 13. Tailored loan products and loan write-offs after a disaster 42

Table 14. Specialized loan officers on staff and loan write-offs after a disaster 43

Table 15. Specialized loan officers on staff and loan write-offs after a disaster 43

Table 16/Table 15. Specialized loan officers on staff and loan write-offs after a disaster 44

Table 17. Cross-country comparison of regulatory and supervisory relief measures 53

Table 18. Loan classification and provisioning in study countries 75

Figures 5

Figure 1. Comparison of nonperforming loans at peak and share of loans written off, by entity type 13

Figure 2. Percentage of loan portfolio written off, by risk management practice 14

Figure 3. Agriculture as a percentage of bank lending, employment, and GDP in study countries, 2023 22

Figure 4. Percentage of entities using specialized loan officers and tailored agricultural loan products, by entity type 25

Figure 5. Main factors affecting agricultural loan portfolios of surveyed entities 26

Figure 6. Most recent disaster events experienced by surveyed entities 27

Figure 7. Surveyed entities' application of forbearance measures, by frequency 32

Figure 8. Relative importance of forbearance measures applied by surveyed entities 33

Figure 9. Relative importance of loan-specific considerations and portfolio-specific considerations for applying forbearance measures 33

Figure 10. Provision of new credit facilities after a disaster, by frequency 35

Figure 11. Relative importance of loan-specific considerations and portfolio-specific considerations for the granting of new loan facilities 36

Figure 12. Challenges faced by surveyed entities in supporting institutions affected by disasters 46

Figure 13. Instruments considered useful by surveyed entities for dealing with institutions affected by disasters 46

Boxes 6

Box 1. The impact of conflict and violence in Burkina Faso 30

Box 2. The case of BRAC emergency loans in Bangladesh 38

Box 3. Global examples of agricultural insurance programs 48

Box 4. Debt relief programs across Asia and Latin America: Select cases 55

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