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Title page 1

Contents 3

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 2

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 9

INTRODUCTION AND CONTEXT 21

INTRODUCTION 22

OBJECTIVES OF REPORT, METHODOLOGY, SCOPE, AND LIMITATIONS 23

GENERAL COUNTRY CONTEXT 23

GRINDAVÍK CONTEXT 26

TIMELINE OF MOST RECENT EVENTS AFFECTING GRINDAVÍK (2019-2026) 34

IMPACTS 35

ANALYSIS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 37

RESPONSE AND RECOVERY EFFORTS TAKEN AS OF 2026 38

HAZARD SPATIAL DISTRIBUTIONS AND LEVELS OF CERTAINTY 44

CHALLENGES AND POTENTIAL GAPS 47

OPPORTUNITIES FOR RECOVERY 58

ANNEX 1. REVIEW OF INTERNATIONAL EXPERIENCE 80

ANNEX 2. VOLCANIC AND SEISMIC HAZARD IN ICELAND 82

ANNEX 3. ANALYTICAL SUMMARY: SOCIAL DIMENSIONS OF THE GRINDAVÍK DISPLACEMENT 84

ANNEX 4. RISK ASSESSMENT, RISK THRESHOLDS, AND THEIR USE IN RISK-BASED DECISION MAKING 86

ANNEX 5. ACCEPTABLE LEVEL OF RISK AND PARTICIPATORY APPROACH 91

ANNEX 6. LIST OF ENTITIES CONSULTED 93

ANNEX 7. REFERENCES 94

Tables 3

Table 1. Summary of seven key recommendations for recovery framework 20

Table 2. Typical municipal expenditure structure in Iceland 25

Table 3. Estimated expenditures for crisis response and recovery after 2023 eruptions 40

Table 4. Summary table of international experience 80

Figures 4

Figure 1. Recovery framework: Key areas considered and seven recommendations 11

Figure 2. Immediate and medium-term policy priorities for decision-makers 12

Figure 3. Aerial photo of Grindavík from 1954 26

Figure 4. Land uses in Grindavík before the eruption 27

Figure 5. Visualization of select information on volcanic hazard, seismic hazard, and population exposure 30

Figure 6. IMO hazard map issued on March 3, 2026 33

Figure 7. Longer-term planning scenarios being developed for a 6-to-12-month timeframe for the possible location of the next eruption... 45

Figure 8. Definition of risk level 45

Figure 9. Results of risk assessment- risk Level 46

Figure 10. Fissures mapped in Grindavík (left) and fenced areas as of February 2025 (right) 46

Figure 11. Sample guiding principles for Grindavík recovery efforts 60

Figure 12. Mean risk tolerance score (1/A1 as the strictest and 3/A3 as the most tolerant) 66

Figure 13. Communications materials used in New Zealand for telecommunication system operators (left) and water supply managers (right) 70

Figure 14. Analysis of preferences of different groups among evacuees from Grindavík 86

Figure 15. What is risk? The main elements 87

Figure 16. Montserrat quantitative risk assessments 88

Figure 17. Risk regions on an F-N curve 88

Boxes 5

Box 1. Select international experience related to recovery planning 13

Box 2. Select international experience related to coordination and communication 14

Box 3. Select international experience related to financial arrangements 15

Box 4. Select international experience related to risk-informed decision-making 16

Box 5. Select international experience related to housing policies 18

Box 6. Select international experience related to critical infrastructure and services policies 19

Box 7. Key episodes in the ongoing Reykjanes crisis affecting Grindavík 34

Box 8. Executive Committee of Grindavík 43

Box 9. Legal framework: Acceptable level of risk (Regulation No. 505/2000) 51

Box 10. Importance of risk communication 52

Box 11. Social risks and mitigation measures for recovery under prolonged uncertainty 53

Box 12. Experience from Iceland 61

Box 13. Improving legislative framework after disaster events 62

Box 14. Example of participatory engagement on acceptable levels of risk 66

Box 15. International examples related to recovery and spatial planning 67

Box 16. Example of Germany's nationwide cell broadcast system 68

Box 17. Audible warning systems: Global examples 68

Box 18. International experience in integrating warning channels 69

Box 19. International experience with community-based preparedness 69

Box 20. International experience with communication and media engagement 70

Box 21. International experience on evacuation planning 70

Box 22. Addressing the social and psychosocial dimensions: Highlights from experience in Iceland 73

Box 23. Housing Compensation and Buyout Programs: Hurricane Katrina (USA) 74

Box 24. Resilient Infrastructure: Lessons from Chile, Japan, and New Zealand 76

Box 25. Economic diversification and relocation: Lessons from Montserrat and Japan 77

Box 26. Experience from Mount Unzen - Relocation, Hazard Mitigation, and Recovery 78

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