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Title page 1

Contents 3

Abstract 4

1. Introduction 5

2. Detailed country sources 8

2.1. Primary source of historical data delivered 8

2.1.1. EU-27 8

2.1.2. Non-EU countries 11

3. Long-series model for NACE sections B-J, L-N, and S95 14

3.1. Historical data estimation and harmonisation (long-series model) 14

3.2. Nowcasting methodology (2024-2025) 16

3.3. Forecasting methodology (2026) 19

4. Short-series modelling framework (MF-DFM) for selected NACE codes 21

4.1. Secondary data sources 21

4.2. Data preparation and preprocessing 22

4.2.1. Partitioning into system classes 22

4.2.2. Treatment of missing, zero, and problematic data 24

4.3. Nowcasting methodology (2024-2025) 25

4.3.1. Model initialisation 25

4.3.2. EM algorithm 26

4.3.3. Generating nowcasts 26

4.4. Forecasting methodology 2026 27

5. Conceptual validation checks 28

6. Inflation adjustment 30

7. Model accuracy 31

7.1. Long-series model for NACE sections B-J, L-N, and S95 31

8. Conclusions and future developments 35

References 37

List of abbreviations and definitions 38

Annex 41

Tables 40

Table 1. List of core and non-core indicators 5

Table 2. List of EU-27 Member States who's NSOs provided or granted access to relevant data in this iteration 8

Table 3. EU-27 data issues 9

Table 4. Supplementary data sources for non-EU countries in 2024 11

Table 5. Non-EU countries data issues 12

Table 6. Estimation methods 14

Table 7. Overview of data partitioning for the MF-DFM 23

Table 8. Model error metric using 2021-2023 data, by indicator and estimation horizon (EU-27 Member States only) 32

Table 9. Data sources for both model input databases 41

Table 10. Overview of the availability of all auxiliary data for nowcasting and forecasting by country (both models) 42

Table 11. Countries affected by T-1 carry-forward estimates, by NACE and size class in target value added series 43

Table 12. Long-series model error metrics using 2021-2023 data by indicator, NACE breakdown, and estimation horizon... 44

Figures 39

Figure 1. The Median Absolute Percentage Errors (MdAPE) of number of enterprises using 2021-2023 data by NACE Rev.2 breakdown,... 34

Figure 2. The Median Absolute Percentage Errors (MdAPE) of value added using 2021-2023 data by NACE Rev.2 breakdown,... 34

Figure 3. The Median Absolute Percentage Errors (MdAPE) of persons employed using 2021-2023 data by NACE Rev.2 breakdown,... 34

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