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Title page 1

Contents 5

Acknowledgements 2

Abstract 4

1. Introduction 7

1.1. About the Southern Ute Indian Tribe 7

2. Data and Methods 9

2.1. Collaboration with the Southern Ute Indian Tribe 9

2.2. Oil and Gas Production 10

2.3. Oil and Gas Revenue 11

2.4. Wind and Solar 12

3. Results and Discussion 13

3.1. Oil and Gas Production 13

3.2. Oil and Gas Revenues 14

3.3. Wind and Solar 15

4. Implications for Policy and Research 17

4.1. Policy implications 17

4.2. Implications for Researchers 18

5. Conclusions 19

References 21

Appendix A: Methods for Estimating Southern Ute Indian Tribe Oil and Gas Production 24

A.1. Dynamic Oil and Gas Market Analysis (DOGMA) Model Overview 24

A.1.1. Modeling Drilling 25

A.1.2. Modeling the Completion of Newly Drilled Wells 26

A.1.3. Modeling Production from Newly Drilled Wells 27

A.1.4. Modeling Production from Existing Wells 28

A.1.5. Aggregation 29

Appendix A. References 29

Appendix B: Methods for Estimating Oil and Gas Revenue for the Southern Ute Indian Tribe 30

Appendix C: Methods for Estimating Potential Wind and Solar Generation 31

C.1. Methods 31

C.1.1. Creating Three Scenarios 32

C.1.2. Creating Sites 35

C.1.3. Assessing Technical Potential 36

C.1.4/5.1.4. Calculating Levelized Cost of Electricity 37

C.1.5. Subsidies under the Inflation Reduction Act 40

C.2. Results 40

C.2.1. Locations for Potential Development 40

C.2.2. Potential Development Sites 43

C.2.3. Site Surface Rights Ownership 46

C.2.4. Electric Capacity and Generation 52

C.2.5. Levelized Cost of Electricity 56

Appendix C. References 65

Figures 11

Figure 1. Natural Gas Prices Under Four Modeled Scenarios 11

Figure 2. Modeled Natural Gas Production 13

Figure 3. Severance Tax and Royalty Revenue Across Four Modeled Scenarios 15

Figure 4. Potential Wind and Solar Development Sites on the Reservation Under the Limited Scenario 16

Appendix Tables 33

Table C.1. Scenario Constraints 33

Table C.2. Individual Constraint Data Sources and Exclusion References 34

Table C.3. 2024 ATB Parameter Site-level Statistics (For Market Case and Year 2025) 39

Table C.4. Area and Percentage of Area Identified as Off-limits by Individual Exclusion Scenarios 41

Table C.5. Site Count and Area Summary 43

Table C.6. Site-level Statistics of Area and Distance to Transmission Line 43

Table C.7. Southern Ute Indian Tribe Surface Rights Ownership 46

Table C.8. Potential Site Area by Surface Rights Owner 47

Table C.9. Area of Potential Sites under Tribal Ownership and Number of Potential Sites under Predominantly Tribal Ownership 47

Table C.10. Site Capacity Factor Statistics 52

Table C.11. Site Summary of Technical Potential Capacity and Generation 53

Table C.12. Site-level Statistics of Technical Potential Capacity 53

Table C.13. Site-level Statistics of Technical Potential Capacity 56

Table C.14. Production Tax Credit Values 61

Table C.15. Site Summary of Average Levelized Cost of Energy Without and With Production Tax Credits 62

Table C.16. Levelized Cost of Energy Statistics 64

Appendix Figures 27

Figure A.1. Distributions of completion time, by basin 27

Figure A.2. Type Curves for Gas Production on SUIT Reservation 28

Figure C.1. Land Use Scenario Constraint Maps 42

Figure C.2. Potential Solar Development Sites 44

Figure C.3. Potential Wind Development Sites 45

Figure C.4. Percentage of (a) Solar and (b) Wind Site Area under Tribal, Federal, and Private Surface Rights Ownership for Each Development Scenario 48

Figure C.5. Potential Solar Development Sites by Broad Category of Surface Landownership 50

Figure C.6. Potential Wind Development Sites by Broad Category of Surface Landownership 51

Figure C.7. Technical Potential Capacity of Modeled Solar Development Sites 54

Figure C.8. Technical Potential Capacity of Modeled Wind Development Sites 55

Figure C.9. Box Plot of Levelized Cost of Energy for Solar Sites 57

Figure C.10. Box Plot of Levelized Cost of Energy for Wind Sites 57

Figure C.11. Levelized Cost of Energy (US$/MWh) of Modeled Solar Development Sites 58

Figure C.12. Levelized Cost of Energy (US$/MWh) of Modeled Wind Development Sites 59

Figure C.13. Map of Inflation Reduction Act Energy Communities 61

Figure C.14. Box Plot of Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) (US$/MWh) of Modeled Solar Development Sites with Base Production Tax Credit... 63

Figure C.15. Box Plot of Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) (US$/MWh) of Modeled Wind Development Sites with Base Production Tax Credit... 63

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