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Title page 1

Contents 4

ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS 7

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 8

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 9

RÉSUMÉ 12

الموجز التنفيذي 15

INTRODUCTION 17

1. RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS 18

1.1. Economic activity moderated in 2025 but remained resilient amid heightened global uncertainty 18

1.2. Inequality has barely budged since 2017, and in the post-COVID era growth has translated into only marginal gains in employment 23

1.3. Inflation remains subdued in 2025, shielded by the currency board despite global trade uncertainty 24

1.4. Fiscal discipline has been maintained and needs to be consolidated 25

1.5. Debt burden is easing, but the trade-offs are growing 29

1.6. External accounts have improved and remain sustainable 32

1.7. The monetary sector remains broadly adequate but warrants close monitoring 33

1.8. Commercial banks gained momentum in 2025; however, safety buffers are starting to fray 33

2. MEDIUM-TERM OUTLOOK AND RISKS 34

2.1. Short- and medium-term prospects remain favorable with persistent vulnerabilities 34

2.1.1. Baseline scenario 34

2.1.2. Major Risks 36

3. LABOR MARKET STRUCTURE: UNEMPLOYMENT, GENDER GAPS, AND SKILLS MISMATCH 38

3.1. High inactivity, unemployment, and gender gaps 39

3.2. The school-to-work transition: Barriers and NEET dynamics in Djibouti 45

3.3. Analyzing Djibouti's labor market structure 47

REFERENCES 53

Tables 6

TABLE 1. Key macro indicators (2021-2028) 35

Figures 5

FIGURE 1-1. GDP growth (sectoral and aggregate demand contributors) 19

FIGURE 1-2. Real GDP growth and growth per capita in Djibouti and peers 19

FIGURE 1-3. World uncertainty and world trade uncertainty index, Q1-1990-Q4-2025 20

FIGURE 1-4. Djibouti's top import sources and exports destinations (% of total imports and total exports in 2023) 21

FIGURE 1-5. Production indices by major sector and logistics trade performance (2023Q1-2025Q3) 22

FIGURE 1-6. Shared prosperity in Djibouti compared to African countries, 2017-2025 24

FIGURE 1-7. Consumer price index in Djibouti compared to peers (% year-on-year) 25

FIGURE 1-8. Price trends in major import partners (2025) and their CPI contributions (2020-2025) 26

FIGURE 1-9. Overall fiscal balance in Djibouti and peers (% of GDP), 2020-2025 26

FIGURE 1-10. Revenue sources and composition (% of GDP, 2020-25) 27

FIGURE 1-11. Public spending trends and composition (% of GDP, 2020-25) 28

FIGURE 1-12. Djibouti's fiscal policy procyclicality in a cross-country perspective, 2013-2024 28

FIGURE 1-13. Djibouti's public debt trends and patterns compared to peers (% of GDP, 2020-25) 30

FIGURE 1-14. Debt has supported growth, but with diminishing returns and rising constraints 31

FIGURE 1-15. Debt service pressures are rising again, narrowing fiscal space for social spending 31

FIGURE 1-16. The current account balances in Djibouti and peers countries (% of GDP, 2020-25) 32

FIGURE 1-17. Djibouti: Selected monetary indicators (H1-2021-H2-2025) 33

FIGURE 2-1. Average CPIA performance compared with peers (2005-24) 37

FIGURE 3-1. Working-age population composition 40

FIGURE 3-2. Working-age population composition by age and gender 41

FIGURE 3-3. Working-age population composition over age 42

FIGURE 3-4. Educational attainment: Employed vs unemployed and out of labor force 42

FIGURE 3-5. Reasons for being out of the labor force by age groups and gender 43

FIGURE 3-6. Unemployment rate by age group and gender 43

FIGURE 3-7. Unemployment rates by age group and education level in Djibouti City and other regions 44

FIGURE 3-8. Determinants of unemployment 44

FIGURE 3-9. The school-to-work transition for population aged 16-34 46

FIGURE 3-10. Sociodemographic characteristics of the NEET 46

FIGURE 3-11. Employment status in the country and in Djibouti region 48

FIGURE 3-12. Job sectors by region and formal employment and workplaces by region, gender, and age 49

FIGURE 3-13. Characteristics of informal workers and sector of employment 50

FIGURE 3-14. Workplaces by formality of employment 51

FIGURE 3-15. Distribution of workers by sector and region 52

Boxes 6

BOX 1. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DATA USED 41

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