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Title page 1

Contents 1

ABSTRACT 1

1. INTRODUCTION 2

2. THE CONTEXT OF THE REFORMS 4

3. THE TAX SYSTEM UP TO 2017 6

3.1. FOUNDATIONS OF OPTIMAL TAX THEORY 6

3.2. EVOLUTION OF TAX REVENUES 7

3.3. GENERAL TAX STRUCTURE 9

3.4. PROVINCIAL TAXES 10

3.5. TAXES ON LABOR AND PERSONAL INCOME 12

3.6. PERSONAL INCOME TAX ON CAPITAL INCOME 14

3.7. PAYROLL TAXES 14

3.8. SUPER-SIMPLIFIED TAX 14

3.9. INFLATION TAX 15

3.10. OTHER DISTORTIONS CREATED BY INFLATION 15

3.11. TAXES ON CORPORATIONS/INVESTMENT 18

3.12. TAX ON BANK CREDITS AND DEBITS 19

3.13. TAXES ON WEALTH 19

3.14. FEDERAL REVENUE SHARING AGREEMENTS AND TAX EXPIRATION DATES 20

3.15. POLICY CHANGES DURING THE FIRST YEAR 20

3.16. TAKING STOCK 21

4. THE TAX REFORM DRAFT AND ITS CONSTRAINTS 22

4.1. GRADUAL IMPLEMENTATION 23

4.2. TAXATION OF PERSONAL INCOME 23

4.2.1. Taxation of the self-employed 24

4.3. CAPITAL INCOME TAXATION 24

4.4. PAYROLL TAXES 26

4.5. TAX ON BANK CREDITS AND DEBITS 27

4.6. TAXES ON CORPORATIONS/INVESTMENTS 28

4.7. VAT 28

4.8. FEDERAL EXCISE TAXES 29

4.8.1. Health Pigouvian taxes 29

4.8.2. Carbon and fuel taxes 30

4.9. OTHER FEDERAL TAXES 30

4.10. PROVINCIAL TAXES 31

4.10.1. ISIB 31

4.10.2. Property taxes 32

4.10.3. Federal revenue sharing agreement earmarks and tax expiration date 32

5. NEGOTIATIONS WITH STAKEHOLDERS - CONGRESS, OTHER EXECUTIVE BRANCH MINISTRIES AND BUSINESS INTERESTS 33

5.1. CHANGES TO THE TREASURY'S DRAFT 33

5.2. CHANGES IN CONGRESS 35

5.3. REVENUE NEUTRALITY AND EXPECTED RESULTS 35

5.3.1. Escape clauses 36

5.4. CAPITAL INCOME TAXATION AND THE 2018 SUDDEN-STOP 36

6. IMPLEMENTATION 37

7. AFTERMATH OF THE TAX REFORM 38

8. POLITICAL ECONOMY LESSONS 39

9. CONCLUSIONS 40

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 41

REFERENCES 41

Tables 9

Table 1. Changes to the tax-to-GDP ratio, 1998-2015 9

Table 2. Mandatory social security contributions and other tax-wedge-like concepts 14

Table 3. Super-simplified regime categories for service providing workers, 2017 15

Table 4. Super-simplified regime phase-out schedule, by category 24

Table 5. Fixed income asset returns before and after tax, 2020 rate schedule as set by the 2017 Tax Reform, at 2017 market conditions 26

Figures 8

Figure 1. Tax burden as a percent of GDP by recipient level of government 8

Figure 2. Tax burden as a percent of GDP, by tax 8

Figure 3. Tax revenue to GDP by income level, 2017 9

Figure 4. Highly inefficient tax revenue as a percent of GDP, 2017 10

Figure 5. Taxes on income, profits and capital gains of individuals as a percent of GDP, 2017 10

Figure 6. Personal income tax. Non-taxable income in US dollars at purchasing power parity (PPP), 2016 13

Figure 7. Headline corporate income tax rates in Argentina vs the World 18

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