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Title page 1

Contents 7

ABSTRACT 5

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 12

CITATIONS 15

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 16

ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS 17

1. INTRODUCTION 18

1.1. Background 18

1.2. Purpose and Scope 20

2. TECHNICAL BACKGROUND ON ALPHA AND PI 22

2.1. Calculation of Alpha (α) 22

2.1.1. FAQ 08-0046 22

2.1.2. NUREG-2180 22

2.2. Calculation of Enhanced Suppression (π) in NUREG-2180 23

2.2.1. In-Cabinet, π₁ 23

2.2.2. Area-wide, π₂ 23

3. TECHNICAL APPROACH FOR UPDATING THE ALPHA AND PI PARAMETERS IN NUREG-2180 24

3.1. Fire Event Review 24

3.2. Calculation of Alpha (α) 26

3.3. Calculation of Pi (π) 27

4. UPDATED NUREG-2180 ALPHA AND PI PARAMETERS 28

4.1. Summary of Events Reviewed 28

4.2. Fraction of Fires That Do Not Have an Incipient Stage (α) 29

4.2.1. Updated α 29

4.3. Enhanced Suppression (π) 30

4.3.1. Updated Suppression Rate for the Calculation of Parameter π₁ 30

4.3.2. Updated Suppression Rate for the Calculation of Parameter π₂ 31

5. COMBINING INCIPIENT DETECTION WITH OTHER FIRE PROTECTION CAPABILITIES 32

5.1. Evaluation of Independence Between Methodologies 32

5.1.1. Incipient Criteria and Interface with Interruptible and Growing Fire Classifications 32

5.1.2. Statistical Tests for Determining the Independence of Incipient and Interruptible/Growing Fire Classifications 34

5.1.3. Detection System Ineffectiveness 36

5.1.4. Operator Responses 36

5.1.5. Personnel Detection 36

5.2. η₁: Failure of the VEWFD System, Redundant Detection/Suppression Capability 36

5.3. η₂: Prompt Alert by VEWFD System, Redundant Detection/Suppression Capability 36

5.4. η₃: Failure of an Independent Suppression System 37

6. CONCEPTUAL EXAMPLES 38

6.1. NUREG-2180, Case 1 38

6.1.1. Non-Suppression Probability Calculated Using NUREG-2180 39

6.1.2. Non-Suppression Probability Calculated Using NUREG-2180 Supplement 1 43

6.2. NUREG-2180, Case 3 44

6.2.1. Non-Suppression Probability Calculated Using NUREG-2180 44

6.2.2. Non-Suppression Probability Calculated Using NUREG-2180 Supplement 1 44

6.3. NUREG-2180, Case 1 Using Event Tree Models in NUREG-2230 45

6.3.1. Calculation of η₁ Using NUREG-2230 with NUREG-2180 Supplement 1 46

6.3.2. Calculation of η₂ Using NUREG-2230 with NUREG-2180 Supplement 1 50

6.3.3. Calculation of Scenario Non-Suppression Probability Combining NUREG-2230 with NUREG-2180 Supplement 1 54

7. CONCLUSIONS 56

8. REFERENCES 58

APPENDIX A. EVALUATION OF OPERATING EXPERIENCE DATA 59

A.1. Evaluation of Fire Events That Have a Detectable Incipient Stage 59

A.2. References and Acronyms in Appendix A 60

A.2.1. References 60

A.2.2. Acronyms 60

Tables 11

Table 2-1. Fraction of Electrical Cabinets Fires That Do Not Have An Incipient Phase From NUREG-2180 (1990-2009) 22

Table 4-1. Summary of Event Classification (1990-2014) 29

Table 4-2. Fraction of Electrical Cabinet Fires That Do Not Have an Incipient Phase Detectable by a VEWFD System (α) 1990-2014 30

Table 4-3. Control Room Probability Distribution for Rate of Fires Suppressed Per Unit of Time (Reproduced from NUREG-2178 Volume 2) 30

Table 4-4. Suppression Times for Events Used to Develop Area-Wide Enhanced Suppression 31

Table 4-5. Area-wide Enhanced Suppression Rate for Use With The Area Wide Enhanced Suppression Parameter π₂ 31

Table 5-1. Number of Electrical Cabinet Fires (1990-2014) With/Without an Incipient Phase, Interruptible and Growing 33

Table 5-2. Number of Electrical Cabinet Fires (2000-2014) With/Without an Incipient Phase, Interruptible and Growing 33

Table 5-3. Observed, Expected, and Total Counts for Power Cabinets 34

Table 5-4. Observed, Expected, and Total Counts For Control Cabinets 35

Table 6-1. Case 1 Input Parameters 38

Table 6-2. Case 3 Input Parameters 44

Table 6-3. Case 1 Input Parameters 46

Table 6-4. Summary of Parameters and Scenario NSP Using the Various Methods 54

Table 7-1. Fraction of Electrical Cabinets Fires That Do Not Have An Incipient Phase Detectable by a VEWFD System (α) 1990-2014 56

Table 7-2. Probability Distribution for Rate of Fires Suppressed Per Unit of Time for Enhanced Suppression Terms π₁ (In-Cabinet) And π₂ (Area-Wide) 57

Figures 10

Figure 1-1. Probability Plots for Sensitivity of Cloud Chamber Aspirating Smoke Detection (Case 1, Reproduced From NUREG-2180) 19

Figure 5-1. η₂, Example of Interruptible Fire NSP Crediting Prompt Detection 37

Figure 6-1. NUREG-2180, In-Cabinet NSP Event Tree for Case 1 40

Figure 6-2. NUREG/CR-6850 Appendix P, Detection-Suppression Event Tree for η₁ 41

Figure 6-3. NUREG/CR-6850 Appendix P, Detection-Suppression Event Tree for η₂ 42

Figure 6-4. NUREG-2180, In-Cabinet NSP Event Tree for Case 1 With Updated α and π₁ 43

Figure 6-5. η₁, Interruptible Fire NSP 48

Figure 6-6. η₁, growing fire NSP 49

Figure 6-7. η₁, Total Scenario NSP 50

Figure 6-8. η₂, Interruptible Fire NSP 51

Figure 6-9. η₂, Growing Fire NSP 52

Figure 6-10. η₂, Total Scenario NSP 53

Figure 6-11. NUREG-2180 Supplement 1 with NUREG-2230 η₁ and η₂ 55

Appendix Tables 11

Table A-1. Evaluation of Bin 15 Events for Incipient Stage 61

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