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Title page 1

Contents 1

Abstract 2

1. Introduction 3

2. Data 4

3. The formation of consumer inflation expectations 9

3.1. The role of inflation perceptions: A subjective view of prices 10

3.2. Tests for rationality in consumer inflation expectations 13

4. Further extensions 16

4.1. The influence of specific prices 16

4.2. Analysis of the ECCS consumer characteristics 17

4.3. The effect of macroeconomic events 19

5. Conclusion 22

References 22

Appendix 37

A. Appendix: ECCS questionnaire 37

B. Appendix: Details of the ECCS data 40

C. Appendix: The influence of specific prices 43

D. Appendix: Quartiles analysis 49

E. Appendix: Events analysis 55

Tables 27

Table 1. ECCS questions about inflation 27

Table 2. Number of observations in the ECCS by qualitative answers 28

Table 3. ECCS filtered data set 29

Table 4. Comparative predictive power of inflation measures 30

Table 5. Rationality tests 31

Figures 32

Figure 1. The ECCS respondents per country 32

Figure 2. The ECCS distribution of inflation perception responses 33

Figure 3. The ECCS distribution of one-year inflation expectation responses 34

Figure 4. The median perceptions, expectations and realized inflation 35

Figure 5. Persistence of median forecast errors 36

Appendix Tables 41

Table B1. Number of months per year and country 41

Table B2. Consumer responses to quantitative questions (Q5.1 or Q6.1) 42

Table C1. Comparative predictive power of inflation measures - Core inflation 45

Table C2. Comparative predictive power of inflation measures - Food inflation 46

Table C3. Comparative predictive power of inflation measures - Energy inflation 47

Table C4. Summary of regression results 48

Table E1. The effect of macro events on consumer perceptions 55

Table E2. The effect of macro events on consumer expectations 56

Appendix Figures 43

Figure C1. Headline and core inflation rates 43

Figure C2. Energy and food inflation rates 44

Figure D1. Inflation perceptions: box plot 49

Figure D2. Inflation expectations: box plot 50

Figure D3. Backward-looking component of the ECCS inflation perceptions and expectations, median consumer, income 51

Figure D4. Backward-looking component of the ECCS inflation perceptions and expectations, median consumer, education 52

Figure D5. Backward-looking component of the ECCS inflation perceptions and expectations, median consumer, age 53

Figure D6. Backward-looking component of the ECCS inflation perceptions and expectations, median consumer, gender 54

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