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Title page 1
Contents 3
Highlights 2
Letter 5
Background 10
Developing VHA's Health Care Budget Projection Using the EHCPM 10
Role of VHA and Its Actuarial Consultant in Developing Health Care Model Estimates 11
VHA's Budget Projection for Inclusion in the President's Budget Request 12
VHA's Process for Updating its Actuarial Model Estimates Includes Gathering Data and Meeting with Program Offices 15
VHA's Processes for Developing its Health Care Cost Model Align with Most but Not All Relevant Standards 19
VHA's Processes Largely Align with Relevant Standards 20
VHA's Processes Do Not Fully Align with Certain Aspects of Relevant Standards 21
VHA Uses Performance Measures to Assess Consultant, but Lacks Specific Oversight Responsibilities in its Standard Operating Procedure 28
Conclusions 31
Recommendations for Executive Action 32
Agency Comments 33
Appendix I. Objective, Scope, and Methodology 35
Appendix II. Actuarial Standards of Practice Relevant to VHA's Actuarial Modeling 40
Appendix III. VHA's Actuarial Consultant's Tasks, Deliverables, and Required Due Dates for the Deliverables 42
Appendix IV. Quality Assurance Surveillance Plan Performance Metrics Used to Assess VHA's Actuarial Consultant 50
Appendix V. GAO Contact and Staff Acknowledgments 51
Figure 1. Basic Outputs of VHA's Enrollee Health Care Projection Model (EHCPM) 11
Figure 2. Timeline for Developing the Budget Projection for VA Health Care Services Included in the President's Budget Request 14
Figure 3. VHA Process for Updating the Enrollee Health Care Projection Model (EHCPM) and Model Delivery 16
Figure 4. Sources of Risk Contributing to the Enrollee Health Care Projection Model (EHCPM) Estimate Used to Support the Veterans Health Administration's... 26
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