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Title page 1

Contents 5

Abstract/Resumé 4

1. Introduction 7

2. Retail trade, professional services regulation and growth 8

2.1. Retail trade 8

2.2. Professional services 9

2.3. Indirect effects of retail trade and professional services regulation 10

3. Measuring retail trade and professional services regulation 10

3.1. A new dataset on retail trade and professional services regulation 10

3.2. Stylised facts on retail trade and professional services regulation 11

4. Measuring downstream effects of retail trade and professional services regulation 13

4.1. Potentially large effect of retail trade and professional services on downstream-sector productivity and growth 13

4.2. The OECD's REGIMPACT indicator 13

5. Estimation strategy and data issues 14

5.1. Estimation strategy and identification 14

5.2. Data issues 15

6. Empirical results 16

6.1. Stylised facts 16

6.2. Estimation results 17

7. Policy experiments 20

7.1. Productivity gains implied by past reforms in retail trade and professional services 20

7.2. Potential gains from closing the regulatory gap to the least regulated countries 22

8. Conclusion 24

References 25

Appendix A. Robustness checks 27

Appendix B. Policy simulations based on lower bound coefficient estimates 29

Appendix C. Implications for the productivity slowdown 31

Tables 5

Table 1. Estimated long-run relationship between REGIMPACT and economic outcomes 18

Table 2. Estimated long-run relationship between REGIMPACT and labour productivity 19

Table 3. Estimated long-run relationship between REGIMPACT and labour productivity 19

Figures 5

Figure 1. Retail trade, professional services and network sector regulation 12

Figure 2. The OECD REGIMPACT indicator 14

Figure 3. Retail and professional services REGIMPACT and economic outcomes at the sectoral level 16

Figure 4. Aggregate labour productivity gains implied by past retail trade and professions deregulation, 1998-2023 21

Figure 5. Labour productivity gains implied by moving to the average of the top 3 least regulated countries in 2023 23

Appendix Tables 6

Table A.1. Estimated long-run relationship between REGIMPACT and economic outcomes 27

Table A.2. Estimated long-run relationship between REGIMPACT and economic outcomes 27

Table A.3. Estimated long-run relationship between REGIMPACT and economic outcomes 28

Table A.4. Estimated long-run relationship between REGIMPACT and economic outcomes 28

Table C.1. Contribution of the changing pace of reforms to the labour productivity slowdown 31

Appendix Figures 5

Figure B.1. Aggregate labour productivity gains implied by past retail trade and professions deregulation, 1998-2023 29

Figure B.2. Labour productivity gains implied by moving to the average of the top 3 least regulated countries in 2023 30

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