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Title page 1

Contents 3

Glossary 4

Key results 6

Key industry insights and developments 7

Executive summary 8

1. Introduction 10

1.1. Government direction to monitor domestic airline services 10

2. Industry developments 11

2.1. The Qantas Group and Virgin Australia respond to cost pressures associated with Middle East conflict 11

2.2. The Qantas Group and Virgin Australia adjust revenue forecasts 18

2.3. Demand remains resilient as the domestic effects of the Middle East conflict remain uncertain 19

2.4. International travel demand growth slows, as airlines adjust capacity and routes 20

2.5. New aviation consumer protections draft legislation introduced to Parliament 21

2.6. Guidance and reporting begin for the Sydney Airport Demand Management Scheme 22

2.7. Airservices seeks price increases to support capital investment 23

2.8. Prospective entrants signal interest in domestic market 24

3. Industry activity and service reliability 26

3.1. Domestic travel picks up in March and April 2026 26

3.2. Service reliability weakens before improving in April 28

4. Competition and connectivity 31

4.1. The domestic airline industry remains highly concentrated 31

4.2. Airline connections remain stable in 2026 32

4.2.1. Consumer choice is more limited on Regional and Remote routes than Major City routes 33

5. Airfares and jet fuel prices 34

5.1. Average airfares increased in March before decreasing in April 34

5.2. Jet fuel prices continue to rise but remain below 2022 peak 36

Tables 13

Table 1. Fuel hedging profiles and estimated revised jet fuel costs, the Qantas Group and Virgin Australia 13

Table 2. Forecast capacity growth, the Qantas Group and Virgin Australia to June 2026 15

Table 3. Forecast revenue per available seat kilometre (RASK), the Qantas Group and Virgin Australia - half year to June 2026 18

Table 4. Proportion of routes by route type and number of airlines - April 2026 33

Figures 12

Figure 1. Nominal weekly average Brent crude oil and jet fuel prices (A$) - January 2026 to June 2026 12

Figure 2. Monthly passenger levels and seat capacity - 2019, 2024, 2025 and 2026 26

Figure 3. Passenger levels on routes connecting larger cities - April 2019, 2025 and 2026 28

Figure 4. Airline on-time performance rates (arrivals) - April 2024 to April 2026 29

Figure 5. Airline cancellation rates - April 2024 to April 2026 30

Figure 6. Share of passengers serviced by airline across all domestic routes - April 2024 to April 2026 31

Figure 7. Number of domestic routes operated by airlines - April 2023 to April 2026 32

Figure 8. Index of real average fare revenue per passenger - January to December 2019, 2024, 2025 and 2026 34

Figure 9. Index of real average fare revenue per passenger by route type - January 2019 to April 2026 35

Figure 10. BITRE real cheapest airfare index, by airfare type - January 2019 to April 2026 36

Figure 11. Real monthly average jet fuel and Brent crude oil prices (A$) - January 2019 to April 2026 37

Boxes 14

Box 1. Regional airlines and low-cost carriers are particularly vulnerable to increased jet fuel prices 14

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