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22대 대한민국 국회 국회정보길라잡이 국회의원검색
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Title page 1

Contents 1

ABSTRACT 1

1. INTRODUCTION 2

2. INSTITUTIONAL SETTING 4

2.1. MATCH SCHEDULING AND PUBLIC EXPOSURE 4

3. DATA AND ESTIMATION STRATEGY 6

3.1. DATA 6

3.1.1. Data on Matches and Weather Conditions 6

3.1.2. Data on Crimes 7

3.2. ESTIMATION STRATEGY 10

4. RESULTS AND ROBUSTNESS CHECKS 13

4.1. RESULTS 13

4.1.1. Home vs Away Matches 19

4.1.2. Heterogeneity by Period of the Match 23

4.1.3. Heterogeneity by Club 28

4.2. ROBUSTNESS CHECKS 29

5. DISCUSSION AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS 33

6. CONCLUSION 34

REFERENCES 36

Tables 6

Table 1. Summary Statistics - Matches 2022-2024 6

Table 2. Summary Statistics by Crime Group and Match Timing, 2022-2024 8

Table 3. Discontinuity-in-Time (RD-style) Estimates of Crime at Soccer Match Kickoff 13

Table 4. Discontinuity-in-Time (RD-style) Estimates of Crime at Soccer Match Kickoff, by Match Outcome 14

Table 5. Event-Time Estimates of Crime Around Match Kickoff (Two-Hour Bins) 16

Table 6. Discontinuity-in-Time (RD-style) Estimates of Crime at Soccer Match Kickoff - ZINB Model 30

Figures 9

Figure 1. Crimes against women: mean crime counts per two-hour bin relative to kickoff (t = 0) 9

Figure 2. Traffic offenses: mean crime counts per two-hour bin relative to kickoff (t = 0) 9

Figure 3. Property crimes: mean crime counts per two-hour bin relative to kickoff (t = 0) 10

Figure 4. Violence (non-gender): mean crime counts per two-hour bin relative to kickoff (t = 0) 10

Figure 5. Weapons-related offenses: mean crime counts per two-hour bin relative to kickoff (t = 0) 11

Figure 6. Crimes against women: event-study IRRs by two-hour event-time bin (reference: k = 0) 16

Figure 7. Traffic offenses: event-study IRRs by two-hour event-time bin (reference: k = 0) 17

Figure 8. Property crimes: event-study IRRs by two-hour event-time bin (reference: k = 0) 17

Figure 9. Violence (non-gender): event-study IRRs by two-hour event-time bin (reference: k = 0) 18

Figure 10. Weapons-related offenses: event-study IRRs by two-hour event-time bin (reference: k = 0) 18

Figure 11. Host-city sample: crimes against women, event-study IRRs by two-hour event-time bin (reference: k = 0) 19

Figure 12. Host-city sample: traffic offenses, event-study IRRs by two-hour event-time bin (reference: k = 0) 20

Figure 13. Host-city sample: property crimes, event-study IRRs by two-hour event-time bin (reference: k = 0) 20

Figure 14. Host-city sample: violence (non-gender), event-study IRRs by two-hour event-time bin (reference: k = 0) 21

Figure 15. Host-city sample: weapons-related offenses, event-study IRRs by two-hour event-time bin (reference: k = 0) 21

Figure 16. Non-host sample: crimes against women, event-study IRRs by two-hour event-time bin (reference: k = 0) 22

Figure 17. Non-host sample: traffic offenses, event-study IRRs by two-hour event-time bin (reference: k = 0) 22

Figure 18. Non-host sample: property crimes, event-study IRRs by two-hour event-time bin (reference: k = 0) 23

Figure 19. Non-host sample: violence (non-gender), event-study IRRs by two-hour event-time bin (reference: k = 0) 23

Figure 20. Non-host sample: weapons-related offenses, event-study IRRs by two-hour event-time bin (reference: k = 0) 24

Figure 21. Day matches (kickoff before 5 p.m.): crimes against women, event-study IRRs by two-hour event-time bin (reference: k = 0) 24

Figure 22. Day matches (kickoff before 5 p.m.): traffic offenses, event-study IRRs by two-hour event-time bin (reference: k = 0) 25

Figure 23. Day matches (kickoff before 5 p.m.): property crimes, event-study IRRs by two-hour event-time bin (reference: k = 0) 25

Figure 24. Day matches (kickoff before 5 p.m.): violence (non-gender), event-study IRRs by two-hour event-time bin (reference: k = 0) 26

Figure 25. Day matches (kickoff before 5 p.m.): weapons-related offenses, event-study IRRs by two-hour event-time bin (reference: k = 0) 26

Figure 26. Night matches (kickoff at/after 5 p.m.): crimes against women, event-study IRRs by two-hour event-time bin (reference: k = 0) 27

Figure 27. Night matches (kickoff at/after 5 p.m.): traffic offenses, event-study IRRs by two-hour event-time bin (reference: k = 0) 27

Figure 28. Night matches (kickoff at/after 5 p.m.): property crimes, event-study IRRs by two-hour event-time bin (reference: k = 0) 28

Figure 29. Night matches (kickoff at/after 5 p.m.): violence (non-gender), event-study IRRs by two-hour event-time bin (reference: k = 0) 28

Figure 30. Night matches (kickoff at/after 5 p.m.): weapons-related offenses, event-study IRRs by two-hour event-time bin (reference: k = 0) 29

Figure 31. Placebo timing (mean over randomizations): crimes against women, event-study coefficients by two-hour event-time bin (reference: k = 0) 31

Figure 32. Placebo timing (mean over randomizations): traffic offenses, event-study coefficients by two-hour event-time bin (reference: k = 0) 31

Figure 33. Placebo timing (mean over randomizations): property crimes, event-study coefficients by two-hour event-time bin (reference: k = 0) 32

Figure 34. Placebo timing (mean over randomizations): violence (non-gender), event-study coefficients by two-hour event-time bin (reference: k = 0) 32

Figure 35. Placebo timing (mean over randomizations): weapons-related offenses, event-study coefficients by two-hour event-time bin (reference: k = 0) 32

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