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Title page 1

Contents 4

Acknowledgments 7

Abbreviations and Acronyms 8

Country Codes 8

Executive Summary 9

PART ONE. The State of the Economy 11

Recent Developments 12

Economic Activity 12

Labor Market 14

Inflation 15

Fiscal Policy 17

Monetary Policy 19

External Sector 20

Economic Outlook and Risks 22

PART TWO. Leveraging the Lobito Corridor Initiative for Economic Diversification and Regional Integration 26

Introduction 27

Lobito Corridor: Strategic Context, Current Status, and Potential 28

Strategic Context: Key Global Megatrends and Comparative Advantage 28

Current Status: Ongoing Measures and Investments 32

Potential: Transforming the Lobito Corridor into a Regional Development Platform 35

Policy Recommendations 43

References 46

ANNEX 1. Examples of Leading Corridors Programmatic and Operational Factors 48

ANNEX 2. Lobito Corridor Potential in Comparison with Other Development Corridors 49

ANNEX 3. Lobito Corridor Countries Merchandise Geography of Trade Profile (2023) 50

ANNEX 4. Scan of Border Management Environment Across Lobito Corridor Countries 51

Tables 6

TABLE 1.1. Economic Trends and Forecasts, 2022 to 2028 24

TABLE 1.2. Macroeconomic and Fiscal Projections for 2026 under Alternative Oil Price Scenarios 25

TABLE 2.1. Although still emerging, the Lobito Corridor governance framework combines elements for regional coordination and... 33

TABLE 2.2. Angolan provinces connected by the Lobito Corridor present substantial production potential 34

TABLE 2.3. Transformative Corridors Ecosystem 37

TABLE 2.4. Six African Industrial Policy Archetypes: Feasibility and Effectiveness Conditions based on Fernandes et al. (2026) 42

Figures 5

FIGURE 1.1. Growth in 2025 was negatively affected by weak oil sector activity 12

FIGURE 1.2. Angola's oil sector has struggled with falling output and unstable global prices 12

FIGURE 1.3. ...but a robust non-oil sector helped offset declining hydrocarbon production 13

FIGURE 1.4. Growth performance has been insufficient to reverse the decline in GDP per capita... 13

FIGURE 1.5. ...which can be explained by the declining productivity 13

FIGURE 1.6. The macroeconomic challenges have constrained access to basic infrastructure... 14

FIGURE 1.7. ...and contribute to limited improvements in services delivery 14

FIGURE 1.8. Despite the moderation in growth, labor market conditions improved... 14

FIGURE 1.9. ...but most jobs are generated in the informal sector 14

FIGURE 1.10. Improved labor market conditions helped strengthen consumer expectations 15

FIGURE 1.11. Inflation continued to ease in 2025 but remains elevated 16

FIGURE 1.12. ...eroding households' living conditions 16

FIGURE 1.13. Fiscal balances deteriorated in 2025... 18

FIGURE 1.14. Nevertheless, public debt declined 18

FIGURE 1.15. Angola's EMBIG (Emerging Markets Bond Index Global) 18

FIGURE 1.16. Authorities began easing the monetary stance 19

FIGURE 1.17. ...which helped spark early signs of recovery in lending 19

FIGURE 1.18. The current account surplus narrowed 21

FIGURE 1.19. ...but the kwanza remained broadly stable... 21

FIGURE 1.20. ...and external reserves slightly increased 21

FIGURE 1.21. The REER saw a relative appreciation 21

FIGURE 2.1. Angola's export structure remains highly concentrated... 27

FIGURE 2.2. ...with the level of diversification deteriorating compared to peers 27

FIGURE 2.3. Increasing global demand for cobalt and copper reinforces the corridor's strategic importance 30

FIGURE 2.4. Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia rank among Africa's and the world's most cobalt- and copper-rich countries 30

FIGURE 2.5. Much of Angola's trade depends on demand from large economies 31

FIGURE 2.6. The Lobito corridor can enhance regional and global economic integration by increasing trade efficiency 31

FIGURE 2.7. Lobito Corridor as a strategic platform for regional and global markets integration 31

FIGURE 2.8. Pledged and committed financing for the Lobito Corridor 32

FIGURE 2.9. Planned financing structure for the Lobito Corridor 32

FIGURE 2.10. Ongoing projects help set the foundation for improved logistics, private investment attraction, and sustainable development 35

FIGURE 2.11. Successful corridor-based economic transformations follow a sequential and conditional path 38

FIGURE 2.12. Logistics challenges may limit the corridor potential for diversification 39

FIGURE 2.13. The corridor economies' high trade tariffs may constrain trade flows 39

FIGURE 2.14. Global Quality Infrastructure Index (GQII) 40

FIGURE 2.15. Angola Human Capital Index in comparison with Corridor Transformative Economies and Peer Countries 40

FIGURE 2.16. Domestic credit to private sector in Angola vs in transformative corridor economies 41

Boxes 5

BOX 1.1. Managing Dutch Disease: Lessons from International Experience 16

BOX 2.1. The Lobito Corridor: A Historical Overview 29

BOX 2.2. Actionable Clusters and Investment Synergies in the Lobito Corridor 36

BOX 2.3. Agribusiness along the Lobito Corridor - Turning Connectivity into Bankable Value Chains 43

Box Tables 6

TABLE B2.2.1. Actionable Clusters in the Lobito Corridor based on Population, Cropland, and Accessibility 36

Box Figures 5

FIGURE B2.1.1. Lobito Corridor, a cross-border, multimodal transport network that connects the mining regions in the Democratic... 29

FIGURE B2.2.1. The tool identified clusters located in the municipalities of Huambo and Caála, and in Benguela based on the selected... 36

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