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Title page 1

Contents 5

Acknowledgments 8

Executive summary 9

1. Introduction 14

2. As climate risks rise, Africa's adaptation readiness is emerging 18

2.1. Climate hazard and disaster data reveal worsening economic and society risks 21

2.2. The benefits of adaptation 35

2.3. Evaluating adaptation readiness across countries to manage climate risks 39

2.4. Summary and next steps 46

3. Climate mitigation policies in Africa: Trends, gaps and regional patterns 48

3.1. Climate mitigation action progress in Africa 52

3.2. Key sectoral policy trends 53

3.3. Characteristics of Africa's policy instrument mix 56

3.4. Climate mitigation action in Africa increased steadily compared to other regions 59

3.5. Summary and next steps 61

4. Priorities for climate policy action in Africa 65

References 69

Figures 6

Figure 1. Economic losses from climate-related disasters have risen steadily over three decades 21

Figure 2. Broad regional overview of key climate hazard trends indicate worsening conditions 22

Figure 3. Countries are unevenly exposed to heat stress with limited resources to adapt 23

Figure 4. Extreme heat exposure will continue to worsen throughout the century without global climate mitigation efforts 25

Figure 5. An increasing proportion of Niger's surface area is exposed to extreme heat by 2100 26

Figure 6. By 2050, many cities in West Africa are projected to be exposed to hot days for over half the year 27

Figure 7. Most countries are facing increasing agricultural drought, threatening croplands and food exports 29

Figure 8. By 2100, all South African subnational regions are projected to experience worsening drought conditions on cropland 30

Figure 9. Most countries are projected to experience an increase of extreme precipitation, but impacts are not uniform 31

Figure 10. Main roads highly exposed to heavy rain over the last five years 32

Figure 11. High share of cropland exposed to extreme precipitation across the continent 33

Figure 12. Many cities are at risk of flooding, potentially disrupting access to critical infrastructure 34

Figure 13. Estimated GDP losses from key climate impact channels by 2050 36

Figure 14. Economic benefits from adaptation interventions 37

Figure 15. Impact of adaptation interventions on labor income by 2050 under a dry/hot climate change scenario 38

Figure 16. The Adaptation Principles framework 39

Figure 17. Overall A&R readiness score and GDP per capita, highlighting sub-Saharan Africa 40

Figure 18. Average scores by pillar in sub-Saharan Africa compared to other regions 41

Figure 19. Average A&R readiness score by pillar for sub-Saharan African countries and the global average 42

Figure 20. The policy scope of the CAPMF 2025 edition 51

Figure 21. The rise and the stagnation of climate mitigation action are reflected in both policy adoption and policy stringency 52

Figure 22. The pace and extent of climate mitigation action differ significantly across sectors 54

Figure 23. Climate mitigation action vs. emissions share is misaligned in countries' emissions profiles 55

Figure 24. The use of market-based instruments is limited in Africa 56

Figure 25. Climate mitigation action has been mostly driven by non-market-based instruments 57

Figure 26. The growth of climate mitigation action across policy instrument types varies substantially 57

Figure 27. African countries still have many options to expand climate mitigation action 58

Figure 28. Climate mitigation action in selected African countries has increased but plateaued from 2021 59

Figure 29. Evolution of climate mitigation action across world regions (A) and African sub-regions (B) 60

Figure 30. Growth of climate mitigation action varies significantly across countries 61

Figure 31. Effective policy mixes across sectors and country groups 64

Boxes 7

Box 1. OECD / IEA methodologies for monitoring past and future exposure to climate-related hazards 20

Box 2. Geographic disparities of heat exposure: Insights from Niger 26

Box 3. Coping with extreme precipitation to ensure regional connectivity 32

Box 4. The OECD Climate Actions and Policies Measurement Framework 50

Box 5. Empirical evidence and effective policy interventions 63

Box 6. Africa and the global agenda to address data gaps 67

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