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Title page 1

Contents 1

Executive summary 1

1. Introduction and background 6

2. Methodology 8

2.1. Country selection 8

2.2. Modelling framework 8

2.3. Scenario design 10

3. Key insights 12

3.1. Hybrid work can reduce up to 12 percent of CO₂ emissions from passenger transport in 2050 across G20 countries 12

3.2. Carpooling can deliver 8 - 15 per cent annual emission savings in 2050 13

3.3. Increased bus use leads to emission savings up to 6.7 per cent in 2050 15

3.4. Behavioural change in transport can lead to emission savings of 15 - 20 per cent annually by 2050 16

3.5. Behavioural change in transport could free up to 5.7 - 8 GtCO₂ of carbon space between 2025 and 2050 20

4. Discussion and conclusion 20

References 24

Tables 11

Table 1. Scenario design to study behaviour change in passenger transport 11

Table 2. Behavioural change in transport leads to high emission savings in G20 16

Table 3. Recommendations for policy sequencing to induce behaviour change in passenger transport in developed countries plus China and... 22

Figures 9

Figure 1. Structure of GCAM's transport sector used for this study 9

Figure 2. Hybrid work can lead to around 320 million tonnes of CO₂ savings from G20 in 2050 13

Figure 3. Higher car occupancy leads to high emission savings in developed countries and China in 2050 14

Figure 4. Higher preference for buses leads to moderate emission reductions 15

Figure 5. Behavioural change can lead to 15 - 20% annual reduction in emissions by 2050 17

Figure 6. Annual and per capita emission savings vary across G20 countries in the 'combined 2' scenario 19

Figure 7. Developed countries and China account for most cumulative emission savings from passenger transport behaviour change 20

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