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Title page 1

Contents 1

Abstract 2

Introduction 3

Literature Review 4

Structure of the Modified GTAP Model with 22 Different Occupations and Capital-Skill Complementarity 9

Calibration of AI-Induced Labor Productivity Shocks Implemented in Two Global Simulations 13

Discussion of Simulation Results 19

Concluding Remarks 30

Bibliography 32

Appendices 36

Tables 11

Table 1. Grouping U.S. labor occupations in two groups for the U.S. Economy 11

Table 2. AI Exposure Score, Occupational Share of Total U.S. Employment and Occupation-Specific Labor Productivity Shock 15

Table 3. AI User Share in Misra et al. (2025) and AI User Share Adopted in Our Paper 17

Table 4. Generative AI-driven Labor Productivity Shocks for China, Mexico, EU27, Canada, the United Kingdom and the Rest of the World 18

Table 5. Change in Welfare by Country/Region, Relative to the Baseline, in billion dollars, Simulation 1 with capital-skill complementarity and... 20

Table 6a. Change in Real GDP by Country/Region, Relative to the Baseline, in percent and in billion dollars, Simulation 1 20

Table 6b. Change in Real GDP by Country/Region, Relative to the Baseline, in percent and in billion dollars, Simulation 2 20

Table 7. Changes in Total Output by Country/Region, Relative to the Baseline, in percent and in billion dollars, Simulation 1 and 2 24

Table 8. Changes in Total Imports, by country/region, in percent and in billion dollars, relative to the baseline, simulation 1 and 2 25

Table 9. Changes in Total Exports, by country/region, in percent and in billion dollars, relative to the baseline, simulation 1 and 2 26

Table 10. Changes in U.S. Exports by Sector, relative to the baseline, Simulation 1 28

Table 11. Change in U.S. Imports by Sector, relative to the baseline, Simulation 1 29

Figures 10

Figure 1. Input substitution possibilities for producing sectors in the standard GTAP model 10

Figure 2. Input substitution possibilities for producing sectors in our enhanced version of the GTAP model for the United States 12

Figure 3a (left) and 3b (right). Input substitution possibilities for producing sectors in our enhanced version of the GTAP model VS. the standard... 19

Figure 4. Change in Real Wages Across Regions, in percent, relative to the baseline, simulation 1 22

Figure 5. Change in U.S. Real Wages, in percent, relative to the baseline, simulation 1 23

Figure 6. Change in Real Wages Across Regions, in percent, relative to the baseline, simulation 2 run with the standard GTAP model 23

Figure 7. Change in U.S. Real Wages, in percent, relative to the baseline, simulation 2 run with the standard GTAP model 24

Figure 8. Sectors with the Highest Chinese Exports, in billion dollars, Relative to the baseline, simulation 1 30

Appendix Tables 36

Appendix Table 1. 22 U.S. Occupational Categories 36

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