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22대 대한민국 국회 국회정보길라잡이 국회의원검색
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Title page 1

Contents 1

Abstract 2

1. Introduction 3

2. Econometric Framework 5

2.1. Posterior Distribution over Pooling Patterns 8

3. Optimal Pooling in Three Datasets 11

3.1. Optimal Pooling in the Blue Chip Panel 11

3.2. Optimal Pooling in the Survey of Professional Forecasters 13

3.3. Optimal Pooling in the SEP 14

4. Extensions 16

4.1. Inertial Rules 16

4.2. Intermediate Pooling Patterns for Survey Dates and Horizons 22

5. Conclusion 26

References 26

Appendix 29

A. Unbalanced Panels 29

B. Partitions over Survey Dates and Forecast Horizons 31

C. Robustness 35

Figures 13

Figure 1. Optimal pooling estimates: Blue Chip versus the period-by-period benchmark 13

Figure 2. Optimal pooling estimates: SPF versus the period-by-period benchmark 15

Figure 3. Optimal pooling estimates: SEP versus the period-by-period benchmark 16

Figure 4. Optimal pooling estimates: Blue Chip inertial rule versus the period-by-period benchmark 18

Figure 5. Optimal pooling estimates: SPF inertial rule versus the period-by-period benchmark 19

Figure 6. Optimal pooling estimates: SEP unemployment-gap inertial rule 21

Figure 7. Optimal pooling estimates: Blue Chip joint date/horizon pooling 23

Figure 8. Optimal pooling estimates: SPF joint date/horizon pooling 24

Figure 9. Optimal pooling estimates: SEP joint date/horizon pooling 25

Figure 10. Optimal pooling estimates: SEP response objects with estimated and reported long-run real-rate intercepts 39

Appendix Tables 35

Table 1. Sensitivity of the selected pooling pattern to fixing g = n 35

Table 2. Sensitivity of the selected pooling pattern to inflation centering 36

Table 3. Sensitivity of the selected SEP pooling pattern to the activity measure 37

Table 4. SEP pooling with participant-reported long-run real-rate intercepts 38

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