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Title page 1

Contents 6

ABSTRACT/RÉSUMÉ 5

1. Introduction 9

2. The long-run fiscal gap indicator and its components 10

3. Some sensitivity analyses 33

4. Complementary illustrations of the need for long-run fiscal adjustments 40

5. The energy transition is potentially an additional source of expenditure pressure 43

References 47

Annex A. Decomposition of the long-run fiscal gap indicator 50

Annex B. Projection of public pension expenditure 53

Annex C. Individual country charts for net debt and gross financing needs projections 55

Tables 7

Table 1. Estimated equation for implicit average rate of return on government financial assets 18

Table 2. Summary of baseline assumptions for primary government expenditure 21

Table 3. Assumptions for other current primary government expenditure 30

Table 4. Assumptions for new low-carbon electricity generation capacity 44

Figures 6

Figure 1. Projected change in cyclically-adjusted government primary balance, 2025-27 12

Figure 2. Long-run fiscal gap at the 2060 horizon 13

Figure 3. Evolution of fiscal gap in the median country 14

Figure 4. Initial structural fiscal gap 15

Figure 5. The r-g differentials are generally negative in 2027 16

Figure 6. The rᵈ-g differential crucial to debt dynamics normalises in the projection period 17

Figure 7. The rᵈ-g differentials are all positive by 2060 17

Figure 8. The rᵃ-g differentials remain negative or zero by 2060 19

Figure 9. Share of valuation effects in annual change in government net financial assets, 2005-24 20

Figure 10. Decomposition of the 'change in r-g' component of the long-run fiscal gap, 2027-60 21

Figure 11. Projected change in health and long-term care expenditure, 2027-60 23

Figure 12. Average pension benefit ratio in the European Union 24

Figure 13. Three broad factors affecting pension expenditure projections 25

Figure 14. The contribution of already-legislated pension age reforms to reducing long-run fiscal gaps 27

Figure 15. Defence expenditure 28

Figure 16. Change in other primary expenditure, 2027-60 28

Figure 17. Change in other current primary expenditure as a share of GDP between 2027 and 2060 31

Figure 18. Net capital expenditure ex-defence is assumed to converge to 0.8% of potential GDP 32

Figure 19. Government net capital expenditure ex-defence as a share of total net investment 33

Figure 20. Sensitivity of long-run fiscal gap to +/- 1 percentage point on interest rates 34

Figure 21. Impact of lowering gross indebtedness by 50 pp of GDP 35

Figure 22. Impact on long-run fiscal gap of a 10% boost to potential output by 2060 according to the supply component responsible 36

Figure 23. Impact on long-run fiscal gap of raising net international migration by 0.1% of population 37

Figure 24. Impact on long-run fiscal gap of raising statutory retirement ages by one year by 2035 38

Figure 25. Impact on long-run fiscal gap of assuming price as opposed to wage indexation of pensions 39

Figure 26. Net government debt with fiscal adjustment rule switched off, 2027-45 41

Figure 27. Change in net government debt from 2027 with the fiscal adjustment rule switched off 42

Figure 28. Projected annual gross government financing needs 43

Figure 29. Increase in low-carbon electrical capacity by 2050 in the energy transition scenario 45

Figure 30. Projected capital expenditure for low-carbon electrical capacity and grid updating, 2028-to-2035 average 46

Boxes 7

Box 1. The cohort employment model and the calculation of average effective retirement ages 25

Annex Tables 7

Table A A.1. Variable names and definitions 50

Table A A.2. Decomposition of the long-run fiscal gap 52

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