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Title page 1

Contents 7

Abstract 3

Acknowledgements, contributors and credits 4

Executive summary 8

Chapter 1. The role of coal in power systems 14

Overview 14

Context 16

Chapter 2. Coal transition strategies 24

Levers for reducing emissions from existing coal plants 24

Scaling up alternative sources of electricity 26

Coal transitions demand large-scale investment 31

Chapter 3. Transition credits 36

How transition credits translate emissions reductions into performance-based revenues 36

Aligning transition credits with national transition pathways is difficult but essential 45

Transition credits should also align with high-integrity carbon markets principles 50

Significant transition credit demand is yet to build up, with the most potential coming from compliance markets 55

Chapter 4. Recommendations 59

1. Policy formulation 60

2. Power systems planning 61

3. Transition credit methodologies 62

4. Investment 67

Annex 69

Regional and country groupings 69

Abbreviations and acronyms 72

Tables 20

Table 1.1. Existing coal-fired power plants installed capacity and average age in 2024 and emissions to 2100 at current utilisation rates and... 20

Table 3.1. List of transition credits crediting methodologies, status and scope, as of April 2026 38

Table 3.2. Selected list of methodologies and clean energy pairing 51

Table 3.3. Potential sources of transition credit demand 56

Table 4.1. Summary of barriers and recommendations 59

Figures 16

Figure 1.1. Electricity demand in the Announced Pledges Scenario, 2015-2035 16

Figure 1.2. Change in electricity generation by fuel and evolution of coal share in power systems by region, 1990-2024 17

Figure 1.3. Electricity generation by source in the APS in selected regions 19

Figure 1.4. Coal-fired capacity additions 1990-2024 and age distribution of existing coal-fired power plants in 2024 in developing Asia 21

Figure 1.5. Coal transition policies (as of April 2026) and share of coal in electricity generation in EMDE in Asia 22

Figure 2.1. CO₂ emissions from existing coal-fired power plants and mitigation levers in the Announced Pledges Scenario 25

Figure 2.2. Change in electricity generation by source and country/region in the Announced Pledges Scenario, 2000-2050 27

Figure 2.3. Capacity required relative to 1 GW of coal to maintain electricity generation and system adequacy in Southeast Asia, by technology... 28

Figure 2.4. Replacing electricity generation and the contribution to system adequacy of existing unabated coal power plants in Southeast Asia... 29

Figure 2.5. Total cost of electricity per unit consumed for hybrid options of wind, solar PV and battery in the United States, Europe and China 30

Figure 2.6. Breakdown of annual average energy investment in power plants in the Announced Pledges Scenario, 2025-2050 32

Figure 2.7. Total electricity system costs by component and by country/region in the Announced Pledges Scenario, 2023-2050 34

Figure 3.1. Projected captive power CO₂ emissions in Indonesia by JETP Scenario 43

Boxes 29

Box 2.1. Cost-competitive system portfolios for replacing coal 29

Box 2.2. Affordability and employment towards a just transition 33

Box 3.1. Piloting the application of transition credits in the South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation coal plant 39

Box 3.2. Co-operating under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement 49

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